Pakistan & Gulf Economist

Commodity

OIL & COAL DEMAND COULD PEAK BY 2020

A drop in the cost of solar and electric vehicle technology could see demand for coal and oil peaking by 2020, according to the experts.

The analysis cautions that large energy companies adopting a “business as usual” attitude are underestimating the advances of low carbon technologies. Experts propose a new ‘starting point’ scenario that takes in cost reduction projections for electric vehicles and solar photovoltaic technology, as well as emissions commitments made under the historic Paris Climate Agreement.

Among other things: solar photovoltaic technology providing 29 percent of global power generation by 2050, phasing out coal in the process; electric vehicles making up more than two thirds of the road transport market by 2050; and demand for coal and oil peaking by 2020. Furthermore, growth in electric vehicles could result in the displacement of around two million barrels of oil per day by 2025 and 25 million barrels per day by 2050.

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PALM OIL PRODUCT EXPORTS TO EU TO GROW AMID NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN

Despite an extensive ‘negative campaign’ about Indonesian palm oil products and falling exports to most countries worldwide, exports to the European Union increased by 3 percent to 4.4 million tons in 2016, up from 4.2 million tons in 2015, as the commodities are much needed in the EU food industry.

EU governments continue to claim that palm oil is bad for health, but the demand keeps increasing every year. It is said that palm oil contains more carcinogenic contaminants than other vegetable oils, although it did not recommend consumers to stop eating it.

Indonesia exported 26.48 million tons of palm oil products last year, a 5 percent decrease from the 25.1 million tons in 2015.

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IRISH MILK PRODUCTION INCREASES IN 2016

Irish milk production in 2016 increased 4.4 percent on 2015 levels, the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show.

Last year, Irish milk production stood at 6.6 billion litres. This compared to the 6.3 billion litres produced in 2015.

For December 2016, domestic milk intake by creameries and pasteurisers was estimated at 177.6m litres, 2.2 percent below the corresponding 2015 figure. Comparing the December 2016 milk produce figures with those for December 2015 shows that total milk sold for human consumption increased by 5.2 percent to 43.8m litres. Butter production was up 4.7 percent to 847,000t.

Meanwhile, the latest figures from the EU Milk Market Observatory (MMO) show that EU milk deliveries were 3.7 percent lower in November 2016 than the corresponding month in 2015, the sixth consecutive month with a reduction.

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ISRAEL RECORDS HUGE NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

Israel hit a record amount of natural gas production of electricity on Tuesday as 69 percent of the country’s power was being produced from natural gas.

Some 11,936 megawatts of electricity were being produced at 7:53 P.M., of which 8,250 megawatts were from natural gas, stated the Israel Electric Corporation.

The remaining production was from coal and diesel fuel. Half that electricity was produced by the IEC, while the remainder was supplied by private power plants.

A month ago, a technical problem limited private power plant Dalia Energies to half its production capacity of 430 megawatts. To make up the shortfall, the IEC put coal-fired plants back into commission.

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COLOMBIA COCA PRODUCERS DEFY NEW CROP SUBSTITUTION PLAN

Coca producers in Colombia have marched against the government’s new crop substitution program, part of the peace deal with the FARC rebel group.

The government has announced that swathes of coca leaf plantations, the raw material for cocaine, are to be eradicated this year. The farmers want authorities to respect their livelihood and make realistic policy proposals. Edgar Mora is the leader of the famers union: The areas with coca cultivations are isolated areas, with simple people, good workers.

Rural people haven’t found an alternative to cultivating coca because if they cultivate other products they’ll lose money and they don’t find profitability in the legal products the government talks about.

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IVORY COAST BEGINS CANCELLING DEFAULTED COCOA DEALS

Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) marketing board has begun cancelling cocoa contracts which are in default and plans to resell those volumes, source said on Wednesday.

Exporters and traders are expecting a wave of defaults by local Ivorian firms who secured export permits at auction, wrongly speculating that prices would rise, and can now no longer afford to buy beans to fill their contracts. Exporters in default will be held responsible for covering lost revenues caused by the resales and will be banned from forward sales auctions until they pay what they owe.

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CHINA IRON ORE IMPORTS OFF TO START; SUPPORT RALLY

There is fundamental justification for the strong start to 2017 for iron ore prices, with imports by top buyer China remaining robust and showing no signs of easing. A total of 86.6 million tones was reported as discharged at Chinese ports in January.

The risk is that this figure may actually rise in coming days as the ship-tracking and port data indicates that a further 13.2 million tones was due to have arrived at Chinese ports by January 31. If some of these cargoes were discharged before the end of month it could push total imports for January to close to 90 million tones, which would be the strongest monthly outcome since the record of 96.26 million in December 2015.

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