Forex

PAKISTANI RUPEE MOVEMENT:

Pak Rupees weakened during the week in inter-bank market as it opened on Monday at Rs.104.60/80 while it closed last Friday at Rs.104.85/105.00. This Friday it closed at Rs.104.60/80 In the open market ,Pak Rupee was Rs.104.30/104.60 on Monday while it closed this Friday at Rs.104.35.

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GBP/USD WEEKLY OVERVIEW

Sterling pushed higher against the U.S. dollar in Asia on Monday, as investors waited for U.S. President Donald Trump to offer details of his promised stimulus. Last week, sterling managed to cover earlier loss on Friday after data showing the retail sales in the U.K. slumped 1.9% from a year earlier in December, the weakest reading since 2012. Sterling edged up to six-week peak against the U.S. dollar in Asia on Tuesday on speculation that Britain’s Supreme Court would rule today that the government needs parliamentary approval to trigger formal Brexit talks. Overnight, sterling rose on Monday to a one-month high against the dollar, continuing the gains of last week amid disparate outlooks for both currencies after recent official statements. Sterling wavered considerably against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday before settling higher and hovering at a five-week high even as the dollar stopped falling against a basket of rivals, which follows the U.K. constitutional court’s Brexit ruling. Sterling’s current rise comes after the British constitutional court ruled the U.K. Parliament has to vote on the issue of leaving the European Union, while the British government spokesman said they agree with the ruling and the procedures and the timetable haven’t changed. The government will present the Brexit law to the Parliament to activate to 50 rule and start the exit negotiation by the end of March, which resulted in sterling’s wavering before rising to a five-week high. Sterling rose yesterday to a six-week high as the dollar tumbled, while markets await the start of the Brexit negotiations and for the matter to be presented to the British Parliament. Sterling drew support from dollar’s slump against a basket of rivals to a seven-week low, amid concerns about U.S. president Donald Trump, which buoyed the pound. Sterling slipped from a six-week high against the dollar on Thursday as investors booked profits after a rally that saw the pound climb almost 5 percent in just 10 days. The pound had initially risen on data showing Britain’s economy maintained its momentum in the final three months of 2016, again defying expectations that June’s vote for Brexit would rapidly take a toll on growth. Britain’s Office for National Statistics reported that gross domestic product grew by 0.6% in the three months to December, above forecasts of 0.5% and matching the rate of expansion seen the previous quarter. On an annual basis, the economy grew by 2.2%, slightly faster than the 2.1% growth expected.

Technically: The GBPUSD pair continued its decline yesterday to retest 1.2550 level and keeps its stability above it, accompanied by MACD reach to the oversold areas, while the RSI keeps supporting the price from below. Therefore, these factors support the chances of bouncing bullishly in the upcoming period to resume the correctional bullish trend, which its next main target located at 1.2720, taking into consideration that breaking 1.2550 followed by 1.2505 levels will stop the expected rise and put the price under the negative pressure again..

TECHNICAL STUDY USING LUTFI MAGNET THEORY (GBP/USD)
TIME	S3	S2	S1	MAGNET POINT	R1	R2	R3
WEEKLY	1.1948	1.2240	1.2392	1.2532	1.2684	1.2824	1.3116

GBP/USD	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
WEEKLY	1.2383	1.2672	1.2380	1.2544	–

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EUR/USD WEEKLY OVERVIEW

Euro edged up to its highest in more than a month against the U.S. dollar in Asia on Monday, as worries about President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies outweighed optimism that he will follow through on promises of tax cuts and other stimulus. Last week, euro closed higher on Friday as markets reacted to Donald Trump’s inaugural speech after he was sworn in as president of the U.S. Euro returned higher on Monday to a six-week high, as the dollar retreated against a basket of currencies amid tensions in U.S. markers about Trump’s policies. Euro’s rise comes as the dollar retreated against a basket of major currencies to a six-week low amid uncertainty in the markets regarding Trump’s policies after not mentioning his stimulus plans in his inauguration speech. Euro kept trading near a six-week high despite earlier wavering on Tuesday, as the common currency managed to hold on to its recent gains following strong manufacturing data from the Eurozone. Euro managed to hold on gains even as the dollar stopped falling against a basket of rivals, following strong manufacturing data form the Eurozone, which underpinned the common currency. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone rose to 55.1 in January from 54.9, besting expectations of 54.6, while the services PMI inched down to 53.6 from 53.7, missing expectations of 53.9. Euro wavered against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, slightly below Tuesday’s seven-week high, as the dollar fell against an basket of rivals, while optimism returned to markets, nudging investors towards the stock market. The dollar’s fall would’ve buoyed the common currency and helped it continue the four-week advance, but weak demand on currencies led to sideways trading, especially after downbeat data from Germany. German business confidence registered an unexpected deterioration in the first month of 2017, industry data showed on Thursday. In a report, the German research institute Ifo said its Business Climate Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 109.8 this month from a reading of 111.0 in December, missing forecasts for a rise to 111.3. Euro fell against the U.S. dollar on Thursday to the lowest level this week away from a seven-week high hit earlier this week, as the dollar surges against a basket of currencies. Euro’s decline comes despite earlier positive data from Germany that showed the consumer confidence survey up to 10.2 in January from 9.9, besting expectations of 10.0. On the other hand, market optimism about Trump’s commitment to his campaign promises nudged investors towards stocks, which weighed on the euro and other main currencies, with the common currency specially suffering from profit-taking as the dollar rebounds.

Technically: The EURUSD pair traded with clear negativity yesterday to touch the bullish channel’s support that appears on chart that rises now to 1.0670, as the price managed to hold above it, noting that this level represents the first protecting factor to the continuation of the recently suggested bullish trend scenario, besides the stability above the most important support 1.0580. On the other hand, we notice that MACD shows clear positive signals now, which forms positive motive that we are waiting to assist to push the price to rise in the upcoming sessions, which encourages us to keep our bullish trend expectations on the intraday and short term basis, noting that breaching 1.0730 level is required to ease the mission of heading towards our next main target at 1.0850.

TECHNICAL STUDY USING LUTFI MAGNET THEORY (EUR/USD)
TIME	S3	S2	S1	MAGNET POINT	R1	R2	R3
WEEKLY	1.0474	1.0591	1.0642	1.0708	1.0759	1.0825	1.0942

EUR/USD	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
WEEKLY	1.0712	1.0773	1.0656	1.0694	–

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GOLD WEEKLY OVERVIEW

Gold prices rose on Monday on a weaker dollar and safe haven buying on uncertainties over U.S. policy after Donald Trump was sworn in as president last Friday. Last week, Gold ended higher on Friday, buoyed by the weaker dollar as the inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president fueled uncertainty about the direction of fiscal and economic policy. In the week ahead, the economic calendar is light but Trump’s policy plans in his first days in office are likely to dominate headlines. Gold prices hit their highest in two months on Tuesday, pushed up as the dollar weakened due to suspicions President Donald Trump’s administration might seek a competitive advantage through a weaker currency. Overnight, gold prices were sharply higher on Monday, rising to the strongest level in about two months as the U.S. dollar sank amid uncertainty around the economic policies of new U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump formally withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and told U.S. manufacturing executives he would impose a hefty border tax on firms that import products after moving American factories overseas. Gold fell nearly 1 percent on Tuesday, sliding from a two-month peak as investors took stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first policy moves and the dollar stabilized after plumbing seven-week lows this week. The dollar sold off after President Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that an “excessively strong” dollar can have negative short-term impacts on the U.S. economy. Data showed yesterday that the Markit’s preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for January beat expectations as new orders expanded at their quickest pace since September 2014. December existing home sales missed expectations, but still closed out 2016 with their best year in a decade. In a separate report, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 2.8% to an annual rate of 5.49 million units, compared to forecasts of a 1.1% decline to 5.52 million. Gold prices held steady on Thursday after falling to 1-1/2 week lows the day before, buoyed by a weaker dollar amid uncertainty over U.S. economic and trade policy under President Donald Trump. Gold’s drop in the markets comes as global stocks improve, while U.S. indices hit record highs on upbeat corporate earnings, which lessened haven demand as risk appetite grows. Gold’s decline comes despite dollar’s fall to a seven-week high against an array of rivals, but profit-taking pressures forced the precious metal down. Gold on Friday held near two-week lows as the dollar strengthened on the new U.S. administration’s plans to spur growth, leaving the metal on track to end the week lower for the first time since late December. China’s Lunar New Year holiday starts on Friday and runs through Thursday of next week, marking a period of sharply reduced economic activity. Overnight, gold prices fell on Thursday to a two-week low, heading for the third straight daily loss amid negative pressure on the precious metal, while the dollar rebounds. The U.S. Commerce Department said new home sales sank by 10.4% to 536K units last month, compared to expectations for a 1.0% drop to 588K units. The report came after the U.S. Department of Labor said that initial jobless claims increased by 22K in the week ending January 21 to 259K from the previous week’s total of 237K.

Technically: Gold price managed to touch the first negative target mentioned in our last report at 1183, and begins today’s trading with more negative pressure in attempt to break the mentioned level, which hints that the negative effect of the double top pattern still active, pushing the price towards the full target of this pattern at 1173. Therefore, we expect the continuation of the bearish bias domination on the upcoming trading, being aware that it is important to monitor the price behavior when reaching the targeted level, as breaking it will extend the bearish wave to reach 1162as a next main station, while the expected decline will remain valid unless the price managed to breach 1197level and hold above it.

TECHNICAL STUDY USING LUTFI MAGNET THEORY (GOLD)
TIME	S3	S2	S1	MAGNET POINT	R1	R2	R3
WEEKLY	1116.68	1156.68	1173.57	1196.68	1213.57	1236.68	1276.68

USD/JPY	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
WEEKLY	1215.25	1219.80	1179.80	1190.45	–

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OIL WEEKLY OVERVIEW

Oil edged up on Monday on statements over the weekend from OPEC and other producers that they have been successfully implementing output cuts, but gains were limited by a surge in U.S. drilling. Last week, oil futures finished higher on Friday, logging a modest weekly gain with traders encouraged by signs that global supply is tightening in wake of a planned agreement by major crude producers to cut output. Prices, however, finished off the session’s highs after data showed a sharp weekly rise in the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil. According to oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. jumped by 29 last week to 551, the largest weekly increase since a recovery in the rig count began in June and the highest level in around 14 months. A weaker dollar helped crude prices gain in Asia on Tuesday with the currency on a trade-weighted basis briefly dipping below 100 for the first time since mid-November before recovering mildly on concerns of a major shakeup to the global trading regime. Overnight, higher production by U.S. shale drillers and other producer countries weighed on crude prices in the U.S. with Brent and West Texas Intermediate settling down despite efforts to trim global output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day by OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Crude prices were mixed in Asia on Wednesday as industry data on U.S. inventories put a dampener on recent upbeat sentiment related to global production cuts. Late on Tuesday figures showed U.S. crude stocks rose 2.9 million barrels at the end of last week, more than expected, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) released Tuesday showed. Figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report are due later during the day. Overnight, oil prices rose on Tuesday on evidence that the global market was tightening as lower production by OPEC and other exporters drained stocks, but analysts said higher U.S. output could eventually limit gains. Crude prices gained in Asia on Thursday, driven up by a weakening dollar, but gains were capped by plentiful supplies and inventories despite an effort by OPEC and other producers to cut output and prop up the market. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.84 million barrels at the end of last week, almost in line with the expected gain of 2.85 million barrels the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, , notching a third straight week of gains and in line and below the 2.9 million barrels reported on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API). Oil prices dipped on Friday, with rising crude output from the United States offsetting efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut supplies to prop up the market. Overnight, crude prices rose to a three-week high as Wall Street kept trading near record highs, even as the dollar rebounded against a basket of currencies, which would’ve normally hurt prices.

Technically: Crude oil price provided good positive trades yesterday to move away from the minor bullish channel’s support that appears on image, which supports the continuation of the bullish trend scenario efficiently in the upcoming sessions, waiting to visit the recently recorded top at 55.20 as a next main target, reminding you that breaching this level will extend oil price gains to reach 56.50. Therefore, the bullish trend will remain suggested on the intraday and short term basis conditioned by the price stability above 52.80, as breaking this level will push the price to test key support areas that start at 50.70 and might extend to 48.30 before any new attempt to rise.

TECHNICAL STUDY USING LUTFI MAGNET THEORY (Oil)
TIME	S3	S2	S1	MAGNET POINT	R1	R2	R3
WEEKLY	49.43	51.27	52.18	53.11	54.02	54.95	56.79

USD/JPY	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
WEEKLY	53.27	54.03	52.19	53.10	–

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by ISMAR financial. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. This document is only for Reading information.[/box]