[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he proper implementation of fiscal and monetary policy can help reduce cyclical fluctuations and be able for the economy of a country to progress its GDP (gross domestic products) in the world. Many foreign economists foresee the economy of Pakistan is increasingly becoming vulnerable to external shocks and funding crisis, although it stuck to its earlier growth forecast for the country of 5.5 percent for the current FY2018, while some experts have also mentioned that Pakistan’s growth has enhanced, but the present government needs to address fiscal and external sector vulnerabilities that have reappeared with the wider current account deficit, declining foreign exchange reserves, growing debt obligations, and consequently greater external financing needs.
The economists of a country also calculated that Pakistan has been experiencing structural transformation in its economy like other growing economies; its GDP structure has undergone important changes during previous few decades. Developments in the fields of science and technology with latest innovations contributed in picking up all sector of Pakistan’s economy but the pace of transformation varies among many sectors depending on the dynamics of the sectors. It is also said that manufacturing and services sectors got relatively more paybacks as against to agriculture sector.
| REAL GDP GROWTH RATES (%) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region/Country | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 (P) |
| India | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.7 |
| Bangladesh | 6.3 | 6 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.0 |
| Sri Lanka | 9.1 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Pakistan | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.05 | 4.06 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 6.0 |
Despite government plans and strategy initiatives, which are playing their due role in picking up all sectors in the country, the composition of the economy has changed over time. In GDP, the sectoral analysis of expenditure approach offers a more wide-ranging insight of growth drivers consisting consumption, investment and exports. Consumption stayed the main contributing factor in economic growth though investment also continued its supporting role.
In 1969-70 agriculture was the biggest commodity producing sector with 38.9 percent contribution to the GDP, which has declined to 19.53 percent in FY2016-17; showing that the share of the agriculture has been falling over time in favor of the non-agriculture sector. However, the share of services sector has grown to 59.59 percent in the last fiscal year; indicating a growing share of the services sector in GDP over time.
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The private consumption expenditure in nominal terms stood to 79.94 percent of GDP in FY-2017 as against to 77.76 percent previous year, whereas public consumption expenditures were recorded at 11.78 percent of GDP as against to 11.25 percent last year. During FY2017, the growth continued the previous trend with major contribution by private consumption largely because of remittances inflows, better growth in agriculture, small scale manufacturing and services sector.
Consumption shared 7.92 percentage points to overall economic growth, while the investment contributed 1.28 percentage points, and net exports contribution is negative (-3.52) percentage points.Our country’s economists also revealed that GDP growth 5.28 percent is shared between the services and commodity producing (agriculture and industry) sectors of the economy. Out of the commodity producing sector, agriculture sector shared 0.69 percentage points to overall GDP growth as against to 0.06 percentage points previous year, while industrial sector contributed 1.05 percentage points in FY 2017 as against to 1.21 percentage points of previous year. The services sector was contributed most dominantly by 3.54 percentage points as against to 3.25 percentage in last year.
| CONTRIBUTION TO THE GDP GROWTH (% Points) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector | 2009-10 | 2010-11 | 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | 2016-17 P |
| Agriculture | 0.05 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.45 | 0.06 | 0.69 |
| Industry | 0.71 | 0.95 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.92 | 1.06 | 1.21 | 1.05 |
| – Manufacturing | 0.19 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.61 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| Services | 1.81 | 2.24 | 2.51 | 2.95 | 2.6 | 2.55 | 3.25 | 3.54 |
| Real GDP (Fc) | 2.58 | 3.62 | 3.84 | 3.65 | 4.05 | 4.06 | 4.51 | 5.28 |
Mostly researchers has mentioned in their study reports that economy of Pakistan has continued the growth momentum as the GDP growth stood to 5.28 percent in 2016-17 as compared to the growth of 4.5 percent recorded previous year. Under the developing Asia forecast by Asian Development Bank, it is predicted for Pakistan economy to boost 5.9 percent and 5.8 percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively, which is unchanged from its July estimates, but higher than the 5.7 percent predict it gave for both years.
CONCLUSION
The Government of Pakistan must cautiously manage external debt, the balance of payments and their financing requirements, while instituting macroeconomic and structural reforms to support economic stability and expansion and also make Pakistan more competitive and fiscally sustainable; otherwise Pakistan could face a number of issues in the near future.