Various researchers have explored both theoretical and empirical ways in which consumer sentiment could influence economic situation of any country. With regard to consumers, low predictions for the future may affect dissimilar kinds of spending in different manners. One would estimate, for example, spending on more expensive, durable products/items to be more sensitive to consumer sentiment, whereas outlays on necessary day-to-day goods would fluctuate less in response to predictions. Researchers also revealed that the improvement in consumer confidence is reflected in the rise in current economic conditions index also expected economic conditions index.
In Pakistan, Consumer Confidence declined to 44.81 Index Points in July from 47.61 Index Points in May of 2018. Sources also mentioned that the consumer confidence in the country averaged 42.14 index points from 2012 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 51.08 index points in March of 2017 and a record low of 29.05 index points in May of 2012.
| Inflation Data (CPI, annual variation in %) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
| Australia | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Canada | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| China | 2.6 | 2 | 1.4 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Hong Kong | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| India | 10 | 6 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| Iran | 34.7 | 15.6 | 11.9 | 9 | 9.6 |
| Malaysia | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.8 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -0.8 |
| Singapore | 2.4 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 |
| South Africa | 5.8 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 5.3 |
| Tajikistan | 5.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 6 | 7.3 |
| USA | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| United Arab Emirates | 1.1 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
According to the Nielsen Global Survey of consumer confidence and spending intentions, Pakistan’s consumer confidence reached an all-time high of 111, up by nine points in 3Q 2017 (July-September), from 102 points in the previous quarter (April-June). It may be recalled SBP is frequently conducting consumer confidence surveys through telephonic calls to consumers that are selected randomly in Pakistan.
The officials of SBP stated in a statement that these surveys are conducted after every two months and provide information on “what people are thinking” about current and future economic conditions, future trends in inflation, interest rates, unemployment, and their household income.
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Indian consumers
Consumer sentiment regarding personal finances, business and buying situations stayed stable in June despite a rate hike by RBI. The GICI (Genesis India Consumer Indicator) a monthly indicator tracking consumer sentiment pan India across personal finances, business situations and buying conditions – remained broadly stable at 60.00 in June as against with 60.45 in May. A quarterly result explains that the consumer confidence increased considerably in the June quarter to 59.83 from 54.39 during March quarter, with all components of the indicator recording an increase.
South African consumers
Consumer confidence in South Africa dropped in 2Q, 2018 after the initial recovery seen at the starting of the year. Inflationary pressures because of growing petrol prices, VAT rising to 15 percent and the sugar tax have all contributed to a more constrained environment and have dampened consumer spend.
Sources urged that the latest results reveal that job prospects continue to haunt South Africans with only 35 percent seeing them as excellent or good in the next 12-months versus almost half (47 percent) who felt this way in the previous quarter. This comes as no surprise given the present facts South Africa unemployment statistics which explained that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 27.2 percent of the labour force during second quarter. In terms of their biggest worries, 71 percent of South Africans hope the country is now in a recession as against to 72 percent in the previous quarter.
American consumers
The experts stated that American consumer confidence grew in September 2018, following rises during August and July. The Index grew from 134.7 in August to 138.4 this month. The survey’s all-time high is 144.7, which was reached in 2000. People’s assessment of the current economic situation increased slightly this month, while their predictions for the future increased dramatically.
Malaysian consumers
International report also stated that Malaysian consumers are the seventh most confident globally in Q2 of 2018. The survey recorded that at 117 points, it was the highest ever consumer confidence score registered by Malaysia since the turn of the decade. The survey also calculated that 65 percent of Malaysians hoped the country was presently experiencing a recession (an important decline as against to 72 percent in Q1 of 2018 and 83 percent during Q2 2017.