Pakistan & Gulf Economist

Post-Budget 2019- 20 (Facts & Figures)

Salient Features Of Budget 2019-20
The total outlay of budget FY2020 is Rs 8,238.1 billion. This size is 38.9 percent higher than the size of budget estimates FY2019. The resource availability during FY2020 has been estimated at Rs 7,899.1 billion against Rs 4,917.2 billion in the budget estimates of FY2019.
The net revenue receipts for FY2020 have been estimated at Rs 3,462.1 billion indicating an increase of 12.8 percent over the budget estimates of FY2019. The provincial share in federal taxes is estimated at Rs 3,254.5 billion during FY2020, which is 25.7 percent higher than the budget estimates for FY2019.
The net capital receipts for FY2020 have been estimated at Rs 831.7 billion against the budget estimates of Rs 443.1 billion in FY2019 reflecting an increase of 87.7 percent. The external receipts in FY2020 are estimated at Rs 3,032.3 billion. This shows an increase of 171.2 percent over the budget estimates for FY2019.
The overall expenditure during FY2020 has been estimated at Rs 8,238.1 billion, out of which the current expenditure is Rs 7,288.1 billion. The expenditure on General Public Services is estimated at Rs 5,607.0 billion, which is 76.9 percent of the current expenditure.
The development expenditure outside PSDP has been estimated at Rs 85.8 billion in the budget FY2020. The PSDP for FY2020 is Rs 1,613 billion. Out of this, Rs 912 billion has been allocated to provinces. Federal PSDP has been estimated at Rs 701 billion, out of which Rs 348.2 billion for Federal Ministries/Divisions, Rs 348.2 billion for Corporations, Rs 5 billion for ERRA, Rs 17 billion for Relief and Rehabilitation of IDPs, Rs 53 billion for Security Enhancement, Rs 5 billion for Prime Minister’s Youth Skill Development Initiative, Rs 2 billion for Clean Green Pakistan Movement/Tourism, Rs 1 billion for Gas Infrastructure Development Cess, Rs 48 billion for Merged Areas of FATA 10 Years Development Plan and Rs 24 billion for Pakistan SDGs and Community Development Programme.
To meet expenditure, bank borrowing has been estimated for FY2020 at Rs 339 billion, which is lower by 688.7 billion than the revised estimates FY2019 reflecting decrease at 75 percent.

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Economy Of Pakistan Growth rate (percent)
Details FY18 H1-FY18 H1-FY19
LSM 5.0 6.6 -1.5
CPI (period average YoY) 3.9 3.8 6.0
Private credit (flow) 14.9 5.7 9.5
Money supply (flow) 9.7 2.3 3.6
Exports 13.7 10.9 1.9
Imports 14.9 18.0 -2.6
FBR tax revenue (billion Rs) 3,844.0 1,722 1,795
Exchange rate (+app/-dep percent) -13.7 -5.0 -12.5
million US dollars
SBP’s liquid reserves (end-period) 9,789 14,107 7,199
Workers’ remittances 19,623 9,745 11,030
FDI in Pakistan 3,092 1,633 1,319
Current account balance -18,989 -8,353 -7,615
Fiscal balance (percent of GDP) -6.6 -2.2 -2.7

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Pakistan: Macroeconomic Targets & Projections
Details FY18 FY19
Target1 SBP Projections
percent growth
Real GDP 5.2 6.2 3.5 – 4.0
CPI (average) 3.9 6.0 6.5 – 7.5
billion US dollars
Remittances 19.6 21.2 20.5 – 21.5
Exports (fob) 24.8 27.9 25.5 – 27.0
Imports (fob) 56.0 58.5 54.0 – 56.0
percent of GDP
Fiscal deficit 6.6 4.9 6.0 – 7.0
CAD 6.1 4.0 4.5 – 5.5

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Salient Features Of The Budget 2018-19
The total outlay of budget FY2019 is Rs 5,932.5 billion. This size is 16.2 percent higher than the size of budget estimates FY2018. The resource availability during 2018-19 has been estimated at Rs 4,917.2 billion against Rs 4,713.7 billion in the budget estimates of FY2018.
The net revenue receipts for FY2019 have been estimated at Rs 3,070.4 billion indicating an increase of 4.9 percent over the budget estimates of FY2018. The provincial share in federal taxes is estimated at Rs 2,590.1 billion during FY2019, which is 8.6 percent higher than the budget estimates for FY2018.
The net capital receipts for FY2019 have been estimated at Rs 443.1 billion against the budget estimates of Rs 552.5 billion in FY2018 i.e. a decrease of 19.8 percent. The external receipts in FY2019 are estimated at Rs 1,118 billion. This shows an increase of 33.4 percent over the budget estimates for FY2018.
The share of current and development expenditure respectively in total budgetary outlay for FY2019 is 80.6 percent and 19.4 percent. The overall expenditure during FY2019 has been estimated at Rs 5,932.5 billion, out of which the current expenditure is Rs 4,780.4 billion and development expenditure is Rs 1,152.1 billion.
The development expenditure outside PSDP has been estimated at Rs 180.2 billion in the budget FY2019, which is higher by 18.4 percent than budget estimates FY2018. The expenditure on General Public Services is estimated at Rs 3,340.4 billion, which is 69.9 percent of the current expenditure.
The size of PSDP for FY2019 is Rs 1,650 billion. Out of this, Rs 850 billion has been allocated to provinces. Federal PSDP has been estimated at Rs 800 billion, out of which Rs 420.4 billion for Federal Ministries/Divisions, Rs 246.1 billion for Corporations, Rs 5 billion for Pakistan SDGs and Community Development Program, Rs 8.5 billion for ERRA, Rs 5 billion for Special Provision for Competition of CEPEC Projects, Rs 10 billion for FATA 10 year Plan, Rs 45 billion for Relief and Rehabilitation of IDPs, Rs 45 billion for Security Enhancement, Rs 10 billion for Prime Minister’s Youth Program and Rs 5 billion for Gas Infrastructure Development Cess. To meet expenditure, bank borrowing has been estimated for FY2019 at Rs 1,015.3 billion, which is significantly higher than revised estimates FY2018.

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