Profit-taking, political news killjoy positivism, sentiments may stay weak
After closing positively for seven consecutive weeks, the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed in red due to political pressures for the week ended 20th December 2019. The market started off on a strong note with the KSE-100 Index gaining 728 points on Monday, with the rally driven by main-board stocks particularly the E&P sector. However, profit-taking and negative news flow on the political front dented market sentiments with the benchmark Index closing flat at 40,833 points, down 0.2%WoW. OGRA’s proposal for a hike in gas prices by 31.6% for general industries impacted the market performance. Amongst listed sectors, the highest rate hike of 136% has been proposed for the fertilizer sector (on feed). Average daily volume improved 8%WoW to 297.4 million shares during the week under review.
Amongst major positive news flows which were largely ignored by the investors included: 1) Pakistan reportedly requesting Saudi Arabia and the UAE to convert US$5 billion deposits into long-term loan, 2) IMF approving disbursement of US$452 million second tranche for Pakistan, 3) current account deficit appearing in November 2019, but down 73%YoY, 4) ECC granting permission to OGDC and PPL to participate in the bidding round for an offshore block in Abu Dhabi, and 5) SBP expressing hopes of attracting foreign inflows in longer-tenor securities.
Foreigners emerged net buyers with US$3.1 million along with Insurance with US$8.7 million and Companies with US$5.4 million. As against this, Banks were net sellers of US$5.5 million and joined by Mutual Funds and Others with cumulative net sell of US$12.1 million (possibly due to year-end realignment). Top performers included: PPL, CHCC, OGDC, MEBL and NCL, while laggards were: FFBL, ASTL, FCCL, PAEL and KEL.
Following a measured response by Director General ISPR, the week closed in green, depicting easing political temperature. Going forward, analysts expect the market sentiment to improve considerably. Moreover, year-end window dressing by the local AMCs could provide additional support to the market. They said, market participation may remain weak due to the Christmas season, a phenomenon usually witnessed in the last week of the year.
The total liquid foreign exchange reserves held by Pakistan were reported at US$17,655.5 million on 13th December 2019. These consisted of US$10,892.9 million held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and US$10,892.9 million and US$6,762.6 million held by commercial banks. During the week under review, reserve held by SBP increased by US$1,659 million to US$10,892.9 million. This increase is attributable to inflows from multilateral and other official inflows including proceeds of US$1,300 million received from Asian Development Bank.
Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) approved increase in the gas prices for consumers to meet estimated revenue requirement of Rs556 billion for FY20. The rate hike, if notified as determined by OGRA, will have a direct inflationary impact. Sector-wise, OGRA has proposed highest increase for fertilizer sector (136% for feedstock and 31% for fuel gas price, which may results in up to Rs530/bag impact, where actual increase may potentially be lower. Build-up in inventory is a risk to complete cost pass on for Fertilizer manufacturers.
Amongst Cement sector, LUCK is the only player to be affected. However in North, declining furnace oil (FO) prices allow a way out with cost of generation on FO standing at Rs10.9/kWh against Rs13.1/kWh on gas (post price increase), which will limit negative earnings impact.
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In Steel, ASTL and ISL would be adversely impacted with respective impact on the bottom-line of Rs0.51 and Rs0.92 per share, assuming zero pass-on.
Habib Metropolitan Bank (HMB) held its analyst briefing to highlight the Bank’s reported earnings of Rs5.3 billion (EPS: Rs4.81) for 9MCY19, posting 12%YoY increase with Net Interest Income (NII) registering growth of 10.4%YoY.
The Bank’s hallmark fee and FX income reported 30.1%YoY growth during 9MCY19. The management expects normalization in FX income going forward given stability in exchange rate and expressed its confidence that outstanding provisions, including general provisions would be sufficient to absorb implications under IFRS 9.
The Bank’s Net Interest Income (NII) is likely to register a CAGR of 11.2% (lower than other key players) as re-pricing of asset yield along with growth emanating from branch expansion and accumulation of better yielding PIBs, countering a negative impact of holding of low yielding PIBs.
Taking cue from management guidance, analysts expect the Bank to announce dividend of Rs2.25/share for CY19 translating into a dividend yield of 6.3%.
During November 2019 high sulphur furnace oil (HSFO) price declined further, down 17%MoM, continuing an already colossal decline of 32.5%CYTD and 44.6%YoY taking its refining crack against Arab Light to US$29.3/bbl, resulting from impending IMO 2020 restriction and a clear dampener for mid-stream profitability.
Additionally, the fall in HSFO prices has largely overridden rupee depreciation impact on grid generation costs, where any decline would further curtail the difference in cost of generation between FO and RLNG, a trend analysts have highlighted already in terms of captive power generation capacity.
HSD/MS were trading marginally higher, while cracks for the same exhibited a downward trend HSD/MS cracks resting below 5MFY20 averages of US$10.8/bbl and 3.4/bbl respectively, with improvements expected during 1QCY20.
Calm on this front is likely to act as a catalyst for physical crude draws with early December OPEC plus agreement adding further impetus to bullish expectations, where the 1.7 million bpd cut from January through March 2020, should support cracks for HSD and MS.
In this regard analysts maintain upbeat on E&Ps (OGDC in particular) which are clear beneficiaries from higher crude benchmarks, while refineries appear to be clear losers. From a wider perspective, select cement (LUCK, DGKC and CHCC) and OMCs (APL and PSO with steady FO industrial supply arrangements) are likely to benefit as well.