Movement remains sideways as year 2019 comes to an end
Summary
The market like previous week remained flat and the volume subdued to average 230m due to Christmas holiday and year end season. Skirmishes at the eastern border was the point that the market fixated on this week unlike former president Pervez Musharraf verdict last week.
There were some good news on the economic front like positive statement of IMF Resident Representative Teresa Daban Sanchez about overall economic performance remained satisfactory while revenue collection increased substantially and there is improvement in trade deficit and net foreign exchange assets as well.
The KSE-100 Index during the eek declined by 15.54 points to close at 40,848.53. The market capitalization decreased by 24 billion to close at Rs.24 billion. The Mutual Fund and were buyer $7.17 bn. Due to year end closing Banks were seller by $12.06m.
Monday there was a meltdown of 825 points. The investors went for profit-taking on the news of border clashes at the eastern border. The Banks turned seller by $6.40m as their year ending of Dec 31 is approaching an were booking profit for their balance sheet.
Tuesday the market gained 320 points to close at 40.328.32. The encouraging press release by the IMF about the economy of Pakistan gave confidence to the investors. However rollover week kept the investor restrained. The volume increased to 320 m.
The market remained closed on Wednesday due to Quaid-e-Azam day.
On Thursday the market kept the enthuse of IMF comments on various aspects of economy vis-à-vis government debt decline to 84.7 percent, reduction of FBR target to Rs.5.23trillion and release of IMF tranche $454 million. The market gained 799.47 points to close at 40,848.53.
On the last day of week Friday market turned volatile. The investors opted profit-taking before week end and close 40,848.53 shedding 279.26.
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Participants/Activity
On average shares of 356 companies were traded. Of these 162 were gainers and 177 were loser and 17 remained unchanged.
Foreigners were net seller $2.9m during the week; companies were buyer by $1.76m, Banks were seller $12.06m; Mutual fund net buyer $7.17m and individuals net buyers $1.52m.
Volume leaders during the week were: Worldcall Telecom 78m;Unity Foods Ltd 75m; Hascol Petrol (R) 54m; Fauji Foods Ltd 47m; Fauji Cement 24m; TRG Pak Ltd 20m; Maple Leaf 16m and Bank of Punjab 12m.
Triggers
- Pakistan Stock Exchange appointed Farrukh Hussain Khan as its chief executive officer after resignation of its first foreign chief Richard Morrin over six months ago.
- Cotton Corp Assessment Committee estimated local crop output session at 9.451 million bales as against the production target of 12m bales.
- SBP data show that Treasury Bills attracted $413 m during a month in Govt. papers to $1.413 billion.
Conclusion
Technically the index is expected to revisit high of Thursday 41,149 which if broken could extend to 42,056.
On downside the range is 40,761. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up supporting a positive view.
Raees Uddin Khan,
Research & Development Institute of Securities Management Research& Training (Pvt) Ltd, Karachi.
Dated: Dec 27, 2019