*Trends in the container market
International Experts identified that this market is “the closest to the consumer” and, by its nature, the demand is strongly driven by the GDP developments globally, demographic developments and, not least, changes in per capita income in regions and large countries. Underpinning this trade is the development of goods containerisation. The Experts have seen tremendous developments in this area over the last 30-year. The Present condition is not very optimistic, with an imbalance between supply and demand. Ships on order represent approximately 25 percent of the existing container fleet. The Condition is more optimistic for general cargo, as that fleet is shrinking somewhat in size. Container vessels are moreover taking market shares from reefers and roll-on/roll-off vessels. The Container feeder vessel market is experiencing competition in parts of the world, in Europe, in particular, and is losing out to the direct service offers of larger container vessels with lower bunkering costs per unit. Container business developments are influenced through ongoing changes in trade patterns, some of which can be regarded as emerging long-term trends. The Experts see a slowdown in the growth of the mainline trades, Asia-North America and Asia-Europe, and a rise in the Europe-Middle East, Middle East-Asia and South America-Africa-Asia trade routes. Mainline trades are growing at about 5 percent per annum whereas non-mainline trades are growing at an annual rate of 10 percent or more. The growth in Inter-Asia and Inter- China trade is even stronger. Presently China is building a self-sustaining supply chain between itself and developing nation trade partners in order to protect its supply and investments abroad. This will bring both structural changes to the container (and dry bulk) industries and the demand for vessels. It is probable that this is the trend that will accelerate most quickly over the next decade.
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The Unit transport cost is a driver for fuel efficiency and larger vessels. Infrastructure developments to support larger vessels in this trade will continue and will reinforce this trend. The Experts hope that the composition of the container carrier fleet in 2020 will be influenced through the above trends. The Large ships of 14,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (teu) and above will serve the main trade lines like Asia-Europe. The Asia-American West Coast trade will also deploy larger vessels, up to the new Panamax standard of 12,500 teu. The Rapid growth of ship size beyond the 18,000 teu mark may continue, but a practical maximum ship size limit of greater than 20,000 teu is probable to be organized in the next decade. For the emerging markets and inter-Asia and inter-China trades, experts will see a rise in the number of 4,000-8,000 teu vessels, while vessels smaller than 1,000 teu are probable to represent a smaller share of the market in 2020.
The Liner companies’ consolidation attempts may also succeed. If so the top ten liners in 2012 may be reduced to 4-5 companies each covering a larger share of the global box trade in 2020.