Almost the entire world except a few countries imposed lockdown to halt the spread of the deadly novel coronavirus (COVID-19). This precautionary measure prompted spike in the unemployment across the globe leaving the poorest of the poor in the lurch. Millions of daily wagers lost their livelihood in a twinkling. Everything was incomprehensible for everyone regarding the very next day since uncertainty prevailed all over. Now when the entire world has been experiencing the impact of coronavirus for last couple of months in one way or the other, the prime issue being discussed is how to get back to normal life and how to recoup the losses rendered during this period and the period in the not-too-distant-future.
Unemployment is the primary concern of almost every economy. There is spike in unemployment throughout the world. The world’s largest economy has to ponder about the 16 million citizens who have lost their jobs in the span of just one month. There is every likelihood that there would be further hike in unemployment since the uncertainty still prevails vis-à-vis the cure to contain the deadly virus.
There is no denying that the coronavirus pandemic has brought the global economy to a standstill during last couple of months. Layoffs in various sectors of the economy in every country wreaked havoc which is unprecedented. There is widespread unemployment for the employees working in the restaurant sector, leisure industries, manufacturing, aviation, construction, transportation, education, entertainment etc. Plenty of countries might face double-digit unemployment for even next couple of months until everything gets back to normal in every sector of the economy.
Pakistan with a population of 220 million has been facing the issues of poverty for a couple of decades, however, the recent pandemic has sped up the poverty and a wave of conundrums has emerged for the government to cope with. There might be unprecedented level of poverty for which may need to look towards the developed countries and the donor agencies for help. Unemployment was already an issue in Pakistan even prior to the pandemic, however, coronavirus has compounded it since millions of Pakistanis have lost their jobs in the wake of uncertainty. Around 20 million Pakistanis might be rendered jobless and Pakistan could face around $5 billion losses. The closure of industry has on the one hand been for the safety of lives, however, it has stagnated the economy.
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The government has been prompt enough to take some immediate measures to tackle the deteriorating situation. On the fiscal side, a relief package worth Rs1.2 trillion was announced on March 24. On the monetary and macro-financial side, the State Bank of Pakistan cut the policy rate thrice by a cumulative 425 basis points to 9 percent during March and April this year. Moreover, The SBP announced two refinancing schemes. First, TERF worth Rs100 billion to stimulate investment in new manufacturing plants and machinery at 7 percent and the second, RFCC worth Rs5 billion to support hospitals. These measures must be commended in these trying times.
The recent decision of the government to let some industries operate with standard operating procedures could bring a breather to the economic activities. The resumption of chemical and manufacturing plants, e-commerce for export, e-commerce for local deliveries of necessary items, software development and programming, paper and packaging units. Industries whose labor is present in their premises, cement and fertilizer plants, mines and minerals, dry cleaners and laundry services, horticulture nurseries, units making agricultural machinery, glass manufacturing and veterinary services could be the first step towards bringing the economy on track.
In addition to the local unemployment, Pakistan is going to face thousands of diaspora Pakistanis who have lost their jobs abroad due to the COVID-19 pandemic and are coming back to Pakistan. This would further deteriorate the economy since on the one hand Pakistan has to generate opportunities for them and most importantly Pakistan would lose the foreign exchange which was being sent these Pakistanis which in essence was a monumental support to the otherwise fragile economy.
There is no denying that the entire world is already in recession of the unprecedented level, however, the issue of unemployment would keep haunting the developing countries more than the developed countries for at least next couple of years, to say the least. Pakistan with a large chunk of population now facing poverty would have to ensure as much employment generation as possible through various means to emerge from the jolts of the pandemic.