World Bank prediction on Bangladesh economy inconsistent: Finance Minister
Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal has said the World Bank is not consistent in its prediction about Bangladesh’s economy.
“Sometimes, they make a prediction and then frequently shift positions,” he told reporters after a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Public Purchase.
His remarks come against the backdrop of World Bank’s forecast that Bangladesh’s GDP growth will be 1.6 percent in the fiscal year 2020-21 when the government set it at 7.4 percent in the national budget.
On the economic performance, Mustafa Kamal said Bangladesh has been doing better compared to other countries.
“All the sectors are performing well, except imports. Imports have decreased resulting in a downturn in revenue collections,” he said.
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Russia in 2021: Will the Economy Recover?
Early last year, Russia quietly dropped its long-standing target to become one of the world’s five largest economies.
The move came as part of a sweeping reset of more than 100 socioeconomic goals President Vladimir Putin had wanted to hit by 2024. Citing the unprecedented economic circumstances, authorities said 2030 was now a more realistic deadline for the ambitious agenda. Some goals, like the top-five target, were ditched altogether.
The irony, analysts said, is that 2020 could be the first ever year that Russia comes close to actually breaking into the top 5— at least when measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, which takes into account differences in living standards.
That is because by macroeconomic standards, Russia’s $1.5 trillion economy weathered the first year of the coronavirus crisis better than almost every other major economy in the world.
“Other countries are doing much worse,” Russian economist Sergei Guriev, a professor at Sciences Po in Paris said at the end of last year. “Advanced economies on average will lose 6 percent of their GDP — many European economies will lose 10 percent.” Russia, conversely, probably contracted by just over 4 percent.
That’s less than the global average, and significantly softer than first feared in the spring when oil — Russia’s most important industry and crucial export — lost 70 percent of its value as prices crashed below $20 a barrel.
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MGM resorts urged to sell 20pc of its China business
Snow Lake Capital, an Asian investment management firm and one of MGM China’s largest public shareholders, has urged MGM Resorts International to sell 20percent of its stake in MGM China.
Snow Lake Capital holds 8percent of the outstanding shares in MGM China, while MGM Resorts holds a 56percent stake in MGM China.
In an open letter, Snow Lake Capital suggested the possible buyer could be a “leading Chinese consumer Internet or travel and leisure company.” The letter added the company believes “such a transaction will create a win-win transaction for all parties involved and deliver significant shareholder value to both companies.”
Snow Lake Capital named six reasons for the suggested sale, including the fact that a new strategic investor would bring significant non-gaming resources to both MGM China and Macau. The reasoning also includes diversification and future internationalisation efforts. The open letter even named potential new partners, such as Meituan and Trip.com.
Macau’s six gaming licenses are set to expire in 2022, and according to the letter, “the new 20 percent strategic Chinese partner will significantly enhance MGM China’s outlook of securing a new concession in 2022.” Snow Lake Capital also stated a new partner would help MGM Resorts to focus on integrated resort (IR) plans in Japan.
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Japan’s economy could see record turnaround— if pandemic is kept under control
Japan’s economy is expected to make its sharpest rebound in decades this year, with consumption set to pick up toward the end of 2021 as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the broader economy eases.
The world’s third largest economy is projected to grow 3.42 percent in the next fiscal year, which will run to March 2022, after shrinking 5.37 percent this fiscal year, according to an average of forecasts by 35 economists polled by the Japan Center for Economic Research.
If the estimate is borne out, it would see a turnaround from the economy’s worst contraction to its highest growth since fiscal 1995, when comparative date became available.
Such a scenario, however, could be delivered a serious blow after Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said Monday that the government was considering a fresh state of emergency declaration in Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures as coronavirus cases continue to climb.
The government aims to bring the economy back to pre-pandemic levels with help from stimulus measures next fiscal year. But economists have cautioned that such a view seems too optimistic, and that a recent resurgence of infections with new virus variants emerging could even stall the recovery in early 2021.
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India’s economy braces for biggest contraction since 1952
India’s economy is set for its biggest annual contraction in records going back to 1952 as the rapid spread of coronavirus cases and measures to contain them hurt businesses and households.
Gross domestic product will shrink 7.7 percent in the financial year ending March 2021, the statistics ministry said in its first advance estimate published on Thursday. That’s steeper than a 7.5 percent drop forecast by the Reserve Bank of India, as well as economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The estimates may undergo sharp revisions due to disruptions caused by steps to contain the pandemic, said the statistics office, which had suspended data collection coinciding with a nationwide lockdown.
The rupee declined 0.3 percent at close in Mumbai on Thursday before the data was published, while sovereign bonds were little changed.
Despite one of the strictest coronavirus lockdowns, India is now home to the world’s second-highest virus infections — which at more than 10.4 million has kept the government from fully reopening the economy. The contraction in the nation’s GDP will also be the first since 1980, when the economy shrank 5.2 percent, and is set to be the worst slump in Asia after Philippines’ estimated 8.5 percent-9.5 percent drop.
But unlike the Southeast Asian economy, which is expected to extend the decline for a second straight year in 2021, economists forecast India to bounce back strongly in the next financial year starting April 1, helped by a string of fiscal and monetary steps. For now, the country is in a recession after two straight quarters of contraction in GDP.
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Vietnam revs up economy to race ahead of rivals
Vietnam’s success in curbing the coronavirus so far, while its Southeast Asia neighbors struggle, is helping the country power ahead in economic growth and attracting funds, foreign investors, experts and analysts say.
Its strength in containing the pandemic saw it build on the foundations of two free trade agreements signed in 2020, also outpacing peers in luring manufacturers moving production out of China because of the Beijing-Washington trade war.
Vietnam was one of the world’s few countries to record growth last year — well down on 2019, but still a 2.9 percent expansion.
Vietnam watchers expect the country to ride high as long as it keeps the virus— resurgent in many countries — at bay. Thanks to rigorously targeted testing, a centralized quarantine program and early border closures, Vietnam’s coronavirus tally stands at just over 1,500 cases and 35 deaths to date — far fewer than any comparable country given its population of nearly 98 million.
“The successful management of the pandemic to date has already enabled the country to capture a larger share of global trade and FDI (foreign direct investment) during 2020,” said Carolyn Turk, the World Bank’s country director in Vietnam.
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Thailand skips lockdown to save economy, but gdp to take hit
Thailand’s latest virus outbreak is likely to crimp consumer spending and delay a tourism revival, prompting warnings the economy may undershoot expectations for a rebound this year and next.
Thailand hopes to avoid a full national lockdown to stem a wave of infections that began in mid-December and has spread to more than 50 of 77 provinces. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha this week ordered some businesses to close and curbed travel in the worst-hit regions, as opposed to the hard lockdown imposed to quell the initial outbreak last March.
A prolonged outbreak would likely hurt consumer spending as people curtail travel and shopping, weakening an economy already hard hit by international travel restrictions.
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South Korean economy expected to grow 3.4pc this year
Nine global investment banks estimated South Korea’s real GDP growth rate for this year at an average of 3.4 percent at the end of last year, up 0.01 percentage point from the previous month.
Credit Suisse raised its estimate from 2.9 percent to 3.6 percent and HSBC raised its estimate from 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent. Barclays (3.2 percent), BoA-ML (3.4 percent), Citi (3 percent), Goldman Sachs (3.6 percent), JP Morgan (3.5 percent), Nomura (3.6 percent) and UBS (4.1 percent) did not change their estimates.
When it comes to the South Korean economic growth rate for 2020, their average estimate is negative 1.1 percent. Their average estimate for 2022 is 2.8 percent. Specifically, those of UBS, JP Morgan and Citi are 3.8 percent, 3.5 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. The respective figures of Barclays, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Nomura are 2.7 percent, 2.5 percent, 2 percent and 2 percent and BoA-ML and Credit Suisse are yet to announce theirs.
The nine investment banks’ global economic growth forecast for this year is being maintained at an average of 5.7 percent. The average for 2020 was recently adjusted from negative 3.8 percent to negative 3.7 percent and that for 2022 is 4.2 percent. According to the banks, the U.S., eurozone, Chinese and Japanese economies will grow 4.4 percent, 4.8 percent, 8.4 percent and 3 percent this year, respectively.
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Malaysia’s economy to rebound
Malaysia’s economy is expected to rebound faster once the country has successfully controlled and alleviated the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, says Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz.
He said this expectation is based on the effective lockdown index, whereby an international consultant had predicted that Malaysia is among the three countries with the most room to control and alleviate the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021.
The Finance Minister also quoted a news report from an international media company which ranked Malaysia as the fifth key investment and business destination among the world’s developing economies for 2021, surpassing China, the Philippines, India and Indonesia.
“This is based on the potential for rapid economic recovery, as well as the country’s stable fiscal and financial position, among others, ” he said in the 35th Implementation and Coordination Unit Between National Agencies (Laksana) report yesterday.
He also cited a report by an international consulting firm which concluded that Kuala Lumpur remains attractive to the international business community, due to factors such as integrated infrastructure facilities, diversity and quality of human resource, as well as the country’s readiness in adopting digital technology.