The current year as well as the preceding years has seen a series of crisis that will mark the modern history. The efforts from states to shed-off the worst effects of COVID-19 in global financial markets, warning heightened conflict between states, is waged by proxy through the override of commercial contracts by national security law, in the contentious allocation of EU recovery funds, and the China policy for Joe Biden administration. These developments has highlighted the importance of role and extent of new and old geopolitical tensions.
Different from classical geopolitical disputes, these conflicts are taking place in a highly inter-dependent world economy. Different terms are being used like “new geopolitics or “geo-economics”, etc. to capture this progression from classical international disputes to globalized and networked ways of coercing others and enforcing state interests. The shift from geopolitics to geo-economics is relatively a new phenomenon that urges us to deliberate beyond the classical geopolitical conception of global power politics.
Traditionally, the concept of indorsing and protecting national interests through economic interdependence and alliance with like-minded states is not a new thing for Pakistan. The structural changes due to this shift from geopolitics to geo-economics have left no country unaffected; so Pakistan is no exception.
The structural injunctions of bipolar order during the Cold War could not break the resolve of Pakistan to connect the world through the common market and cultural bonds. The formation of Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) in 1964 exhibited Pakistan’s idea of development and socio-economic interdependence among Iran, Pakistan and Turkey. RCD provided a platform to forward many infrastructure building projects of road and rail connectivity. RCD became stagnant because of the domestic political and economic turmoil in member states but the expansion of RCD in 1991 enabled broader regional cooperation under the new name Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO).
Those countries who are willing to quit the conventional security model and desired to reshape their chronicle of security and development, from them the rise of China has changed the situation in their favour. The revival of the historic Silk Road route through China’s BRI initiative has provided a new hope of inclusive growth and development for all. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a pilot project of BRI and through this project, Pakistan would be able to avail new opportunities of economic prosperity. The reflection of the new narrative of inclusive growth and development can be seen in Pakistani leadership’s initiatives toward. Normalization of ties with India is one major step towards realizing the shift from geopolitics to geo-economics. If both the countries stop spending the mammoth amount of their budgets on defense and start spending the big share on peoples’ welfare and prosperity.
Prime Minister Imran Khan has also been very keen to promote the changed narrative by taking initiative to facilitate Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and convincing the businesses of their new geo-economic vision for the country. His visit to Uzbekistan was also part of the new policy to promote trade and cultural ties with Central Asian republics. Uzbekistan and Pakistan agreed to finalize a preferential trade agreement to increase the bilateral trade and to establish and upgrade the transportation setup like rail links via Afghanistan. Pakistan could be a major transit trade destination for landlocked Central Asia. So, if Pakistan emphasis on providing effective connectivity and enhanced security conditions at home and with neighboring countries then would go in its favor. The peace and prosperity in Afghanistan is in favor of Pakistan. The departure of coalition forces from Kabul, without any permanent solution, has created a vacuum. The people at helm of affair in the Ministry of Foreign affairs must be extra vigilant. There is no room for any slip-up. We have to careful and no to repeat mistake.
Pakistan cannot easily escape geopolitics. And the regional outlook portends conflict, not connectivity. Neighboring Afghanistan could see civil war as the United States departs. And despite the restoration of a cease-fire with India along the Line of Control, there are no signs that either side will make the kinds of concessions on the Kashmir dispute that would be essential for lasting normalization.
Then there’s the US-Chinese cold war, which shows no sign of abating in the Biden era as the war of words between U.S. and Chinese delegations at last month’s bilateral talks shows. Pakistani officials say they want no part in it, but they may get dragged in. Islamabad depends on Beijing for essential military hardware to deter New Delhi as Washington arms New Delhi to counterbalance Beijing. Although the United States has provided Pakistan with more than $3 billion in arms since 9/11, those transfers have dropped significantly since 2016, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Meanwhile, Washington seems to have not only lost interest in Pakistan but also sees the country as firmly in China’s sway. For example, a US Institute of Peace study group report released last year argued that the “China-Pakistan axis is strengthening.” Among its policy options, it included “demanding suspension of Chinese arms transfers to Pakistan” and “matching Chinese diplomatic support for Pakistan with a US tilt toward India.”
Balancing all this would be complicated enough, but also enacting the tough policy reforms key to making geoeconomics work in its favor seems beyond Pakistan’s grasp. The case of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) illustrates that. Infrastructure and transit trade could never be the be-all and end-all of Pakistan’s geoeconomic pivot. Pakistan will not prosper solely by transporting the goods of other countries. That economic model may have worked at one point for city-states like Dubai and Singapore, but it won’t for a country of more than 220 million people that sees a million-plus young people enter its labor force annually.
In order to understand the swiftly changing world of our times it is vital to use the two analytical tools of geopolitics and geo-economics, each keeping the other in context. Unless we are able to have a new, broader and more open vision of our world, we will neither be able to see where our future is headed nor will we be in a position to make sound decisions as a state.
The lesson that has to be learned by everyone is that states have to create a perspective on where they stand within the increasingly complex network of geo-economics, because in today’s world no state can progress or even survive in isolation. Businesses need to reevaluate their usefulness and relevance in the evolving global market and widen their integration across borders and across continents.
Current era is the age of globalization and characterized by factors that include revolutionary technological advancement, concentration on sciences, connectivity, reducing distances by use of swift mode of transportation etc. In this modern world, not only people do interact with each other more, but the frequency of nations interacting has also increased enormously; hence turning politics into geopolitics and economics into geo-economics. Pakistan has to see the world more precisely and understand the problem before running for the solution.
No nation can survive in isolation so amalgamation is vital. Ideas have become more interconnected and interdependent. Pakistan should focused on that as strategically it is surrounded by regional and global adversaries and a victim of externally induced terrorism. Re-evaluation is the key to finding new solutions and ways forward. Once we re-evaluate our situation through the geo-economic lens, we won’t be resorting to quick answers, instead the answers will be more innovative, workable and futuristic.
Government should get the overseas Pakistani encouraged to get involved in the economy. Realizing the geo-economics paradigm also depends on the continuity and transparency of political institutions and strict practice of the separation of powers. Extremist tendencies should be mitigated through a chain of reforms in society overall. A progressive, tolerant and civilized societal behavior can lead the country towards sustainable economic development.
A true pivot to geoeconomics must start with reforms at home. Until the rules of the game are changed, Pakistan will simply lurch from crisis to crisis as most of its citizens suffer and the elite laugh all the way to the bank.
[box type=”note” align=”” class=”” width=””]The author, Nazir Ahmed Shaikh, is a freelance columnist. He is an academician by profession and writes articles on diversified topics. Mr. Shaikh could be reached at nazir_shaikh86@hotmail.com.[/box]