Stock market tumbles 1692 point over Russian-Ukraine -tussle
Summary
It was an eventful week for the stock exchange. The week was a rollover week and the FATAF’s working group and plenary meetings in Paris started this week. The political activity to bring No Confidence move against Pm Imran Khan gained momentum . The PM decided to visit Russia despite some apprehension by USA and the opposition member The visit was concluded successfully during the week. While PM in Russia, the a rising geopolitical tension arose wherein Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an attack an attack which caused a surge in the global crude oil above $100 a barrel and hike in commodity price. The KSE-100 index plunged by 1302 .4 on Thursday , to close at 43,830.51. However next day Friday it bounced back 153.73 point. The result announcement of corporate sector continued in positive manner.
The benchmark KSE-100 Index declined by 1691.63 points and also dropped 43,000 level to close at 43,984.24 Trading activities increased to average volume of 229m. The market capitalization lost Rs.259bn and closed at Rs.7,537 T
Monday:KSE-100 index 45,362.85 Change (-313.02) Vol 138 m Mkt.Cap Rs.7,745T
Tuesday: KSE-100 index 45,012.18 Change (-350.67) Vol 227 m Mkt.Capt Rs.7,694 T
Wednesday: KSE-100 index 45,132.92 Change (+120.74) Vol 186 m Mkt.Capt.Rs.7,703 T
Thursday: KSE-100 index 43830.51 Change (-1302.41) Vol 350 m Mkt. Capt. Rs7.498 T
Friday: KSE-100 index 43,984.24 Change (+153.73) Vol 242 m Mkt. Capt. Rs7,537 T
Participants /Activity
Foreigners were net seller $3.24 m during the week ;companies were buyers $9.53 m, Banks were buyer $3.94m ; Mutual fund net seller $15.24m individuals net buyer $4.31 m and Insurance were buyer $4.31m
Volume leaders during the week were: Unity Foods 265;Telecard 217m; Ghani Gio Hoi 214;United Bank 145m; Nishat 103m;TRG 91m; TPL Pak 77m;TPL Properties 63m; WTL 57m;; Cnergio 50m;Sui Northern gas 37; Maple Leaf 32m; Fauji Cement 18m; and BOP 16m
Participants: Co 352;Gain 117; Loss 215 and Unchanged 20
Triggers.
- Current Account deficit hits all-time high in January.$2.55 bn against $219m in the same month last year.The country’s CAD swelled to $11.6 bn during the first seven months of 2021-22 against a surplus of $1.028bn 7MFY21
- The government raised Rs.367 billon through auction of Treasury bills on Wednesday while it raised the cut off yields by up to 23 basis points
- The data released by SBP on Friday showed the country paid profits and dividend on foreign direct investment and portfolio were $1.013 bn during Jul-Jan FY22 which is almost same as FY21
Conclusion
Despite considerable geo-political downside risks and emerging commodities super cycle phenomena ,Pakistan will achieve an economic growth target of 4.8 per cent for the current fiscal year as the resumption of the IMF prog. is expected to bring improvements in a few indicators in the second half of the current fiscal year; according to the Ministry of Planning (Jul-December ) 2021-22.
One of the positive factors ,the mid-year review says is that the country half of adult population is fully vaccinated and this coverage provides a basis for wider immunity to the population . Moreover recent fiscal adjustment efforts through supplementary money bills are likely to weigh on containing rising growth in aggregate demand . The industrial sector may witness slight slippage against the target but the service sector is likely to surpass the target . Higher financial intermediation and 38 pc growth in IT –related services will also provide an additional boost to the social community service sector .
For domestic investment , credit to the private sector has crossed Rs.1 trillion mark for the first time in the history of the country which shows upbeat market sentiments and appetite for financing. The latest edition of a widely used index of consumer confidence in Pakistan on Thursday the bench mark rose 8.8 per cent on a quarterly basis for October-December.
Raees Uddin Khan
Research & Development
Institute of Securities Management Research & Training (Pvt) Ltd
Karachi
Dated Feb 26,2022