According to UNDP’s Human Development Report 2020, Pakistan’s HDI value for 2019 stayed at 0.557, which put the country in the ‘medium’ category. Statistics showed that Pakistan ranked at 154 out of 189 countries in the index based on Health (life expectancy at birth), Education (expected years of schooling) and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita.
Between 1990-2019, Pakistan’s HDI value grew from 0.402 to 0.557, a rise of 38.6 percent which is considerably less than the rise attained through Bangladesh (59 percent) and India (52 percent). Pakistan’s life expectancy at birth grew by 7.2 years, mean years of schooling grew by 2.9 years and expected years of schooling increased by 3.7 years respectively. Pakistan’s GNI per capita increased by 64.1 percent. From South Asia, the country is compared with Bangladesh, Afghanistan and India which have HDIs ranks of 133, 169 and 131 respectively.
Pakistan has shown some progress in human development indicators over the years, raising it to the Medium Human Development category yet, this progress is slower than all other South Asian countries except Afghanistan. According to the World Bank prediction, Pakistan’s poverty rate to ease from 4.8 percent to 4.4 percent in FY 2021-22 and 4 percent in FY2023. The World Bank has set the extreme poverty line at $1.9 per person per day, however, since 2017, the World Bank has also been reporting poverty rates for all the countries using two new international poverty lines, a lower middle-income International Poverty Line, set at $3.20 per day, and an upper middle-income International Poverty Line, set at $5.50 per day.
According to a recent report released by the Bank, Pakistan’s lower middle-income poverty rate would also fall from the current 37 percent to 35.7 percent in FY22 and 33.8 percent in FY 2022-23. Similarly, the upper middle-income poverty rate has also been projected to ease from 77 percent to 76.2 percent in FY22 and 75 percent in the next fiscal year. In comparison, the poverty rate in other regional countries is much higher than that in Pakistan.
The World Bank report titled “Shifting Gears: Digitization and Services-Led Development” noted that the international or extreme poverty rate in Bangladesh was 12.5 percent which would ease to 11.9 percent in the next fiscal year. Similarly, lower middle-income poverty rate and upper middle-income poverty rate in the country is 48.9 percent and 82.1 percent respectively.
In India, the report added that the extreme poverty rate is 22.5 percent compared to 4.4 percent in Pakistan. The lower middle-income poverty rate in India is 61.7 percent. Likewise, Nepal’s international poverty rate is 15 percent while its lower middle-income and upper middle-income poverty rate is 50.9 percent and 83 percent respectively. While in Sri Lanka the international poverty rate is 0.9 percent and the lower middle-income and upper middle-income poverty rate is 11 percent and 42 percent respectively.
With respect to overall economic outlook of Pakistan, the report added that the output growth is projected to ease to 3.4 percent in FY2022, but strengthen thereafter to 4 percent in FY2023 with the implementation of key structural reforms, mainly those aimed at sustaining macroeconomic stability, growing competitiveness and enhancing financial viability of the energy sector.
Statistics showed that inflation is projected to edge up in FY2022 with expected domestic energy tariff hikes and higher oil and commodity prices before moderating in FY2023. Poverty is predicted to continue falling, reaching 4.0 percent by FY2023.
According to the Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan statistics, expenditure on pro-poor sectors reached at 9.5 percent of GDP in 2016-17 followed by 9.2 percent of GDP in 2017-18. It dropped to 8.1 percent of GDP in 2018-19 and slightly grew to 8.3 percent of GDP in 2019-20. In absolute terms, pro-poor expenditure grew to Rs 3,447.35 billion as against to Rs 3,009.30 billion in 2018-19.