More than 1,100 people have died in Pakistan as a result of massive flash floods brought on by historic monsoon rains that devastated bridges, crops, roads, and infrastructure. Pakistan’s central bank had issued a warning that the recent heavy rains presented a threat to the nation’s economic output due to their effects on the agriculture sector.
The flood damage may exceed $10 billion, according to an early and tentative estimate given by government officials. The monsoon floods occur as Pakistan struggles with a protracted economic crisis, with rising inflation driving up the cost of basic foods.
In Pakistan, flooded agricultural land is expected to have long-term humanitarian and economic effects. Rice, sugar, and wheat worth billions of dollars have already been lost. Large tracts of agricultural land have been damaged by flooding in dozens of districts in Pakistan’s Punjab, Baluchistan, Sindh, and KPK provinces.
Catastrophic flooding is still causing great suffering in Pakistan. The majority of the 33 million people affected by the disaster — roughly one-third of the nation — have not yet received aid. Although another disaster that is caused by floods directly affects the entire world is imminent — a serious food crisis — the situation might yet become worse.
Pakistan will find it difficult to feed itself and the nations that rely on its food exports since crops, livestock, and agricultural land have been damaged or destroyed. This runs the danger of escalating the global food market crisis brought on by supply chain disruptions brought on by the coronavirus epidemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Due to rising food costs brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Pakistan has been experiencing more food insecurity and food shortages.
In the event that thousands of acres of agriculture are not recovered, the nation may soon experience a food shortage. There will be serious food famines as a result of the extensive loss of Pakistan’s livestock and farmland. The deluge has drowned over 4 million acres of agriculture and 900,000 cattle, as well as destroying 80 to 90 percent of crops. Preliminary estimates indicate that 3 million animals have perished and that 65% of Pakistan’s major food crops, including 70% of its rice, have been demolished by the floods.
According to Pakistan’s minister of planning, 45 percent of agricultural land is now damaged. Even under the best of circumstances, such land is priceless: A little less than 40% of Pakistan’s total land area is devoted to agriculture, and agricultural land suffers significant harm from soil erosion. Food costs have hiked in Pakistan, with tomatoes surging five times and onions tripling since last month. Steps are being taken to import vegetables and other items from Iran and Afghanistan. Pakistan is also considering a temporary land route to allow duty-free shipments from arch-rival India.
The primary food crop in Pakistan is wheat, and the season for sowing crops will shortly start. In Pakistan, the domestic consumption of wheat is almost more than 90%. The wheat crop, however, may be in jeopardy given the amount of flooded or damaged land; some farmers worry that their fields won’t be usable for three months. Pakistan would likely require more food imports than it currently has, which might increase expenses and exacerbate the nation’s balance of payments issue. Food inflation was at 26% prior to the floods, and some prices have since increased by as much as 500%. The cost of potatoes has climbed four times to Rs 100 a kilo, tomatoes have gained 300% to Rs 400 a kilo, and ghee, a fat used for cooking, soared by 400%. Elsewhere, supplies of dairy and meat were also hit as warehouses got flooded. (1)
Cities, which have sizable populations of the working class and poor, will be most affected by these high expenditures. It may result in urban turmoil if history is any indication. Two-thirds of Pakistan’s population lives in rural regions, where their culture will express itself differently. The vast disparity in rural land ownership, where the majority of the population owns little to no property, aggravates the food insecurity problem. In the long term, this might make a public health issue worse: childhood stunting linked to inadequate nutrition.
An international impact would result from a food crisis in Pakistan. With clients in China and sub-Saharan Africa, the nation exports rice at the fourth-largest rate in the world. Pakistan’s Bureau of Statistics reports that during the fiscal years 2021–2022, the country exported rice worth a record $2.5 billion. Any sharp decline in exports would simply exacerbate the world’s food insecurity, which is already worsened by Ukraine’s decreased wheat exports. However, the huge global rice supply may cushion the impact. Additionally, Pakistan exports a variety of non-food crops, notably cotton. Flood damage would probably affect Pakistan’s ability to export agricultural goods, which is a crucial source of income. (2)
Pakistan may yet be able to save some agricultural land if the flood waters recede quickly enough to prevent a worst-case scenario. Punjab province, which wasn’t as badly affected by the floods, is where the majority of Pakistan’s wheat and rice harvests are grown. However, the most substantial damage has already been done due to the flooding’s sheer size. Donor weariness is still an issue for Pakistan as the international donor community struggles to respond to the immediate crises in Afghanistan and Ukraine. The flood crisis’s worldwide repercussions highlight the significance of international cooperation to avert future calamities.
Bibliography
- Pakistan Economic Crisis: Vegetable costs up 500%, threaten to fuel Pakistan inflation | International Business News – Times of India. (n.d.). The Times of India. Retrieved September 20, 2022, from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/vegetable-costs-up-500-threaten-to-fuel-pakistan-inflation/articleshow/94009190.cms
- Kugelman, M. (2022, September 8). Pakistan: Flood Crisis Could Become a Food Crisis. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/08/pakistan-floods-food-security-crisis/
The author is a
1 – PhD Scholar, School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics Beijing, China.
2 –Â Visiting Lecturer, Institute of Development Studies, The University of Agriculture Peshawar, Pakistan
Email:- ShakilAhmadeco@gmail.com