On April 23, 2016, Pakistan signed the Paris climate agreement, joining 174 other nations in a commitment to combat climate change. The Paris Agreement is an agreement among 175 countries within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with CO2 emissions reduction.
The agreement went into effect on November 4, 2016. The contribution that each individual country will make to combat climate change should be reported every five years and are to be registered by the UNFCCC Council.
Pakistan currently ranks 135th in the list of global emitters of carbon on a per capita basis, accounting for less than 1 percent of total global carbon emissions, according to World Bank data. According to the report submitted by Pakistan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change last year, the country’s emissions in 2015 stood at 405 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2 eq.). However, emissions are increasing at a rate of 3.9 percent (16 MTCO2 eq.) annually. Pakistan is also considered one of those countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, from worsening floods and scalding summer temperatures to erratic rainfall that can kill crops.
As much as it is important why floods of biblical proportions occurred this year in Pakistan, equally important is the fact of what measures should be adopted to avoid its occurrence next year. While it’s true that climate change is a reality and that recent floods could be attributed to it to some extent but putting all the blame on glacial meltdown would be the same as a pigeon closing its eyes in face of danger. Had lessons been learned from the 2010 floods, the situation would have been different but owing to the typical “reactive” approach, the magnitude of losses has swelled to the point where 33% of Pakistan is submerged and the damage to infrastructure (houses, road networks, bridges, etc.) has crossed the estimate of $10 billion.
A post-event analysis would reveal a vicious cycle that the recent floods have triggered. Starting from the agriculture sector (both forward and backward linkages) which is the mainstay of the rural population is said to have taken the worst hit. Connected to it is the food security issue as a lot of crops and livestock have been washed away which may result in food shortages and price hikes in the coming months. Brewing somewhere in between is a humanitarian crisis as a lot of people associated with agriculture sector will now be unemployed which will trigger a fresh wave of poverty. Needless to say, the health and education sector which is already in shambles will be deteriorated further and may take years to reach the levels where they were prior to the floods.
How to overcome the challenges of reconstruction and rehabilitation (R&R) post floods are as under:
Realignment of the FY23 budget
The funds held against PSDP and ADP should be directed toward R&R activities
Debt relief
A lot has been written about reparations i.e. claiming damages from the West. I would suggest going one step further and renegotiating future debt repayments for 5-10 years
Effective land development practices
A check should be put in place to stop the rising commercialization of natural waterways and those breaching the law should be penalized.
Water management
Since the meltdown of 7,000 glaciers could not be controlled by building dams and barrages, the need of the hour is better to water management through reforestation and checking on the timber mafia
Early warning system
An early warning system (EWS) should be put in place which should issue advisories to the concerned departments and should also be responsible for enforcing them so that evacuations could be planned in advance and losses could be curtailed.
Capacity building
Through public-private partnerships capacity building for relief efforts should be enhanced so that dependency on one or two institutions could be reduced.