Bangladesh to become 20th largest economy by 2038
Bangladesh is poised for significant growth, with projections placing it as the 20th largest economy in the world by 2038, according to a forecast by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). This marks a 17-place jump from Bangladesh’s current 37th position in 2023.
Bangladesh’s economy has shown resilience and steady growth despite global challenges. In the fiscal 2021-22 (FY22), the country experienced an expansion of 7.1 percent, and while growth moderated to 6 percent in FY23, it still left the output 25.6 percent above pre-pandemic levels. However, this deceleration in FY23 was mainly due to a contraction in industrial activities, largely affected by reduced export demand from advanced economies.
The Country faced economic hurdles, including a sharp depreciation in its currency and hikes in fuel and energy prices. These factors contributed to a significant increase in production and transportation costs, leading to a surge in consumer prices. In 2023, inflation is estimated to have reached 9 percent, a stark rise from the average 6.3 percent observed in the decade leading up to 2021, as per CEBR.
China’s services sector picks up pace on optimism for economic recovery
China’s services sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in December, according to a widely watched private survey, offering some optimism as policymakers in Beijing seek to stimulate a faltering recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
The Seasonally adjusted Caixin services purchasing managers’ index released on Thursday rose to 52.9 in December from 51.5 the previous month, above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The figure was ahead of the forecast of 51.6 by economists polled by Bloomberg.
Activity expanded for the 12th consecutive month and at the fastest pace since July. New orders increased, export demand grew and companies’ outlooks for 2024 improved.
“Optimism prevailed . . . with enterprises expressing confidence in an improved economic outlook for the coming year,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI also showed a slight expansion in December and a marginal improvement from the previous month.
But the data contrasted official PMI figures released on Sunday by the National Bureau of Statistics, which showed services activity shrank for a second month and the sector languishing at its lowest point since the unwinding of Covid-19 restrictions in late 2022.
What do we really know about India’s gdp?
Controversy refuses to die down about the size of India’s GDP and its growth rate. It all started when the new GDP series with base 2011-12 was released in 2015. Not only did analysts point to problems, the government itself was unhappy that it showed a higher growth during the UPA’s ten years compared to the post-2014 NDA period.
The Pandemic in 2020 severely dented the economy and the economy witnessed its steepest decline since Independence. The recovery from this low base was also steep. This has led to the official claim that India has done well in spite of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine to become the fastest growing major economy in the world. Is this the correct picture of the economy? That depends on the accuracy of the numbers and the policies formulated on that basis.
Doubts about the accuracy of data in the new series from 2011-12 have risen on several counts. To begin with, when the new series was announced in 2015, there was no back series to compare it with. It was said that the new series was based on the MCA21 data base of the industrial sector, which was more complete than what was used till then, the IIP data. It was stated that the back series could not be generated both because the MCA21 data base had not stabilised earlier and the relevant data on employment became available from 2011-12.
Waves of lay-offs sweep Indonesia’s export-oriented industries in 2023
Despite earlier reports of declining unemployment and resilient growth, Indonesia’s economy still took a hit from weaker global demand last year, leading to almost 300,000 workers being laid off in export-oriented industries. The Manpower Ministry recorded that more than 295,000 people were laid off from January to November in 2023, with most of them located in West Java (36.1 percent) and Central Java (20.3 percent), as reported by Katadata. Indonesian Employer Association (Apindo) labor affairs chair Bob Azam said the layoffs mostly occurred in the textile and footwear industries caused by weaker demand from Europe.
Japan’s economic balancing act around trends that are unsustainable
The Japanese economy in 2023 had two distinct features. Macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP and employment, were broadly in good shape. But economic trends that are unsustainable kept worsening, raising concerns about Japan’s future economic stability.
Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 was slightly above 1 percent — modest, but not bad given potential growth estimated at below 1 percent. The output gap — the difference between actual and potential output — is closing, the unemployment rate, which ticked up during the COVID-19 crisis, has fallen and the national jobs-to-applications ratio is well over 1.
Consumer price inflation is currently around 3 percent, exceeding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2 percent target. Corporate profits are buoyant, share prices have reached a post-bubble high and inbound tourism has recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels, benefiting industries hit hard by the pandemic.
Despite these positives, most of the Japanese populace is unhappy. The source of their discontent is that, although nominal wages are rising, the pace at which they are rising is slower than that of inflation. This has eroded real wages, undermined consumption and cast doubt over the continuation of modest economic growth.
India-Malaysia economic partnership: challenges, prospects, and strategic collaborations
The India-Malaysia partnership, rooted in deep historical ties, spans defense, economics, and cultural exchanges. Despite challenges such as geopolitical shifts and trade restrictions, their strategic collaboration continues, buoyed by shared membership in global forums. Enhanced trade, tourism, and technology cooperation have amplified economic prospects. Both countries aim to fortify bilateral ties through initiatives like the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement amendment, targeting a US$25 billion trade volume.
Minimum wage in Mongolia to increase by 20pc in 2024
The Minimum wage in Mongolia will be increased by 20 percent to 660,000 tugriks (more than $193). The decision is effective starting from January 1, 2024.
The Decision on increasing the minimum wage was made at the session of the tripartite National Committee for Labor and Social Partnership.
The Minimum wage in Mongolia was 550,000 tugriks (about $161) in 2023.
According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, more than 100,000 Mongolian citizens receive the minimum wage.
Can the Nepal-India-Bangladesh (NIB) provide a new template for a regional economic corridor?
The Ushering of 2024 marks the two-day visit of India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, to Nepal for a high-level joint commission meeting of foreign ministers. One of the highlights of the visit will be discussions about the sale of 10,000 MW of power by Nepal to India and subsequently wheeling out the sale of Nepali hydropower to Bangladesh through India. This will give the Nepal-India-Bangladesh (NIB) energy trade a definite head-start. However, the energy trade is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of the massive potential that lies latent in the NIB region—a potential that can only be realised through economic cooperation and more significantly through the creation of the NIB economic corridor. While South Asia has a population close to 1.8 billion, formal intra-region trade and investments have been dismally low.
There’s no other job’: the colonial roots of Philippine poverty
Rodino Sawan stepped into the wire harness and dug his toes into the muddy track that threads the sweltering plantation. He pushed forward, straining against the cargo trailing behind him: 25 bunches of freshly harvested bananas strung from hooks attached to an assembly line.
Six days a week, Mr. Sawan, 55, a father of five, tows batches of fruit that weigh 1,500 pounds to a nearby processing plant, often as planes buzz overhead, misting down pesticides. He returns home with aches in his back and daily wages of 380 Philippine pesos, or about $6.80.
One day last year, the plantation bosses fired him. The next day, they hired him back into the same role as a contractor, cutting his pay by 25 percent.
“Now, we can barely afford rice,” Mr. Sawan said. Still, he continued to show up, resigned to the reality that, on the island of Mindanao, as in much of the rural Philippines, plantation work is often the only work.
Singapore wraps up 2023 with highest quarterly growth for the year
Singapore’s economy grew 2.8 percent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2023, according to advance estimates from the country’s Ministry of Trade and Industry on Tuesday.
This was a sharp increase from the 1 percent expansion recorded in the third quarter, and the fastest rate of growth since the third quarter of 2022.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the economy grew 1.7 percent, a larger expansion than the 1.3 percent in the third quarter.
For the year 2023, the economy grew by 1.2 percent, a slower pace from the 3.6 percent growth in 2022. This was in line with the MTI’s expectations, which forecast the economy to grow “around 1 percent” in November.
In his New Year’s message on Jan. 1, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the country “avoided a recession” in 2023. Lee described the year as “challenging,” citing a “troubled” international environment, such as the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as tensions between the U.S. and China.
He added that despite this, “households are still feeling the pressure of higher cost of living, though inflation is gradually coming down.”
Singapore narrowly avoided a technical recession in 2023 after recording a 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter, following a 0.3 percent contraction in the first quarter. A technical recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of GDP contraction.
Political risks loom over Sri Lanka’s economic stabilisation
Sri Lanka’s economy showed signs of stabilisation in 2023 after the worst economic and political crisis since its independence in 1948. An acute balance of payments crisis caused lower- and middle-income Sri Lankans to pre-emptively default on foreign debt, which exceeded US$50 billion in April 2022.
The remarkable change during 2023 can be traced to decisive policies by President Ranil Wickremasinghe’s new government, formed in July 2022, after mass protests forced then president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign.
The Wickremasinghe government implemented stabilisation measures — namely hiking interest rates to control inflation, removing fuel subsidies, raising taxes and passing a law to improve the independence and accountability of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. The government also conducted external debt restructuring talks with creditors, intensified discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on an economic bailout, sought Indian aid and engaged in free trade agreement-led Asian regionalism.