- Unpredictable weather patterns and rising temperatures threaten crop yields and water resources
- Adopting methods like Zero Budget Natural Farming and Agroecology could improve resilience and productivity
Pakistan’s economic sector, which heavily banks upon agriculture is in the eye of a serious storm related to changing environmental patterns, which threaten to disrupt the normalcy of the agricultural produce. The erratic changes in weather patterns will give birth to multifaceted challenges, which Pakistan may find impossible to withstand, considering that our resources wouldn’t conventionally allow us to diversify quickly enough to defeat this leviathan of global warming.
The signs of the meltdown of this important sector have already shown up strongly, as seasons become more ferocious, manifesting extremes of weather patterns never seen before.
Additionally, increased temperatures can exacerbate the frequency and intensity of droughts, putting further stress on crops and reducing yields. The changing climate may also encourage the proliferation of pests and diseases, which can devastate harvests and endanger food supplies.
Furthermore, the shifting monsoon patterns could lead to unpredictable rainfall, making it difficult for farmers to plan planting and harvesting schedules. As a result, the livelihoods of millions of farmers are at risk, potentially leading to increased poverty and food insecurity in rural areas.
To mitigate these impacts, it is crucial for Pakistan to adopt sustainable agricultural practices, invest in climate-resilient crops, and enhance water management strategies to adapt to the changing climate and safeguard its agricultural future.
There are thousands of factors to keep an eye on in the wake of changing warming patterns, which will definitely exert enormous impact on the following areas:
Temperature Increase
The foremost obstacle in Pakistan’s collapsing agricultural sector will be the abnormal rise and fall in temperatures, precipitating a cycle of uncertainty with boom harvests in one season,followed by shocking drops in the next season. This reality is etched in stone as endorsed by various studies, until a miracle interrupts and scribes Pakistan’s agricultural destiny otherwise.
Pakistan is expected to warm by 3-5°C by 2050, exceeding the global average, according to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (2014).
This increase will lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, like the 2015 event that caused 2,000 deaths, as reported by the WHO (2018)
Crop yields will decline, with a 1°C increase in temperature reducing wheat yields by 6-8% and maize yields by 4-6%, according to the FAO (2017).
Changes in precipitation patterns will lead to water scarcity, affecting 50% of agricultural production, as reported by UN Water (2018).
Pakistan’s glaciers, which provide 60% of the country’s water, are melting at an alarming rate, threatening water security, according to WWF (2019).
Recognised as one of the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change by the Climate Risk Index (2016), Pakistan emphasized the need for international support for adaptation efforts, particularly in agriculture and water management, at COP22 (2016).
Pakistan committed to increasing renewable energy’s share in its energy mix to 20% by 2030 and stressed the need for climate finance to support developing countries’ adaptation and mitigation efforts. The country also highlighted the importance of addressing loss and damage associated with climate-related disasters, as reported by UNFCCC (2019 and 2020).
But despite all these reports pointing to an apocalypse, nothing seems to have magnified the rate of action required to be taken in Pakistan,as the crisis deepens further.
Water scarcity
Another area infested with serious challenges for Pakistan is water scarcity. Over the years, the shift in weather patterns has created serious water- related problems, causing a serious strain on agricultural productivity.
Pakistan faces severe water scarcity due to global warming, ranking among the top 10 countries most affected, according to the World Bank’s 2019 report “High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy”.
Climate change has changed precipitation patterns, leading to droughts and floods, exacerbating water scarcity, as highlighted in the UNDP’s 2020 report “Pakistan’s Water Crisis: Causes and Consequences”.
Additionally,the melting of glaciers, which provide 60% of Pakistan’s water, at an alarming rate due to global warming, is a pressing concern, as noted in the WWF’s 2019 report “Pakistan’s Glacier Crisis”.
Furthermore, climate change has reduced snow cover, affecting river flows and groundwater recharge, according to the PCRWR’s 2020 report “Water Scarcity in Pakistan”.
The IWMI’s 2019 report “Water Scarcity in Pakistan: A Review” also emphasizes that climate change has altered hydrological cycles, leading to water scarcity and affecting agriculture. These reports underscore the urgent need for Pakistan to address water scarcity and climate change through sustainable water management practices, infrastructure development, and international cooperation to ensure a water-secure future.
All of this can take place, when various interwoven factors are taken into account,since none of them can be rectified in isolation.
Food productivity
Proverbially at least, if there is to be a next world war, it would be fought over food shortage,since the change in earth’s temperature levels will perish everything, leading to food shortages that would seriously hamper the flow of food production. Soil degradation, water salinity and decreased availability of conducive factors can and will put Pakistan in the arc of trouble with regard to food availability and production, forcing the country to brace for new crises and shocks..
Plus,Pakistan’s staple crops, will be particularly affected, with projected yield declines of up to 20% by 2050. Additionally, warmer temperatures will alter the distribution and prevalence of pests and diseases, further compromising crop productivity. These changes will have far-reaching consequences for food security, livelihoods, and the economy, highlighting the need for adaptive measures, climate-resilient agricultural practices, and sustainable water management to mitigate the impacts of global warming on Pakistan’s food productivity.
In order to stem this tide, Pakistan needs course correction and adoption of a range of measures that can help fix things quickly and efficiently. In this regard, it can learn from other countries, which have sought recourse to global warming resilient agricultural practices to preserve themselves from harm.
For instance, India’s “Zero Budget Natural Farming” approach promotes organic farming, reducing synthetic fertilizers and enhancing soil health.
Brazil’s “Agroecology” focuses on biodiversity, efficient water use, and minimal tillage.
Australia’s “Regenerative Agriculture” prioritises soil conservation, cover cropping, and integrating livestock grazing.
Pakistan can adopt these practices, such as promoting organic farming in Punjab, agroecology in Sindh’s arid regions, and regenerative agriculture in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s hilly terrain. By adopting these global warming resilient practices, Pakistan can enhance agricultural productivity, improve water efficiency, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, ensuring food security and sustainable livelihoods for its growing population.
Last,but not the least, Pakistan needs to heed calls from different sources,which have already underscored the need for the ” to do” list.
It’s clear that Pakistan’s agriculture sector is vulnerable to global warming, but there are solutions.
According to the FAO’s 2016 report on Conservation Agriculture, adopting this practice can increase crop yields by 10-15% while reducing water usage by 20-30%. The IWMI’s 2019 report on Precision Irrigation also highlights water savings of up to 40%. Climate-resilient crop varieties, as discussed in CIMMYT’s 2018 report, can enhance wheat yields by 10-20%. Agroforestry efforts, as outlined in UNDP’s 2020 report, can sequester up to 37 million tons of CO2 equivalent annually.
Organic farming practices, as per IFOAM’s 2019 report, can reduce synthetic fertilizer usage by 50%.
Finally, the World Bank’s 2019 report emphasizes that allocating 10% of the budget to climate-resilient agriculture can reduce vulnerability by 25% by 2030.
By implementing these strategies, Pakistan can improve agricultural productivity, reduce environmental degradation, and enhance food security, ultimately adapting to the challenges of global warming and staying away from the harm’s way.