China’s economy set to grow 4.8pc in 2024: Poll
China’s economy is likely to expand 4.8 percent in 2024, undershooting the government’s target, and growth could cool further to 4.5 percent in 2025, a Reuters poll showed, maintaining the pressure on policymakers as they consider more stimulus measures.
Gross domestic product is forecast to have risen 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, slowing from 4.7 percent in the second quarter and hitting the weakest since the first quarter of 2023, according to the poll, which was conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 15.
Authorities have sharply ramped up policy stimulus since late September in a bid to revive the flagging economy and ensure growth will reach the government’s target of around 5 percent this year.
“The main pressure is from the consumption side, which is linked to deflationary pressures,” said Xing Zhaopeng, ANZ’s senior China strategist.
Xing expects economic activity to improve in the fourth quarter as a raft of stimulus measures kick in, but still maintains his 2024 growth forecast at 4.9 percent.
India’s economy slowing down: Modi
Speaking at a conference on India’s economy, Narendra Modi, the prime minister, was typically bullish about his country’s prospects. The world, he suggested, is living through an “Indian era”. Rapid growth, favourable demography and an emerging tech industry have put the country at a “sweet spot”, he said.
Recent data, though, suggest that some sourness is creeping in. After roaring growth in recent years, the economy seems to be losing momentum. According to the latest official figures, the annual gdp growth rate eased to 6.7 percent between April and June, down from 7.8 percent in the previous quarter. That is the slowest expansion in more than a year.
Data released in the past fortnight suggest that the slowdown has continued. An index tracking output in eight core industries, such as coal, oil and electricity, fell in August for the first time in more than three years. In September car sales, a proxy for consumption, fell by 19 percent year on year. Growth in collections from the goods-and-services tax, another indicator of economic health, also fell to its lowest level in more than three years. Even India’s stockmarkets, which have been on a tear recently, suffered losses for six consecutive days.
Malaysia’s share market, once dubbed ‘world’s worst’, is making a comeback
Malaysia’s stock market is experiencing a steady revival as billions of dollars pour into an exchange once written off as one of the region’s worst performers.
Buoyed by Malaysia’s robust post-pandemic economic growth and a surge in foreign investment by US tech giants, the Bursa Malaysia’s benchmark index has climbed as much as 17 percent over the past year.
Investors opened 289,000 new trading accounts during the first seven months of 2024, according to the Bursa operator, nearly double as many as those opened during the whole of 2023.
“The market appears to be emerging from a ‘lost decade,’ where it was previously undervalued with little upward movement,” Stephen Yong, a licensed financial planner with Wealth Vantage Advisory, told.
Yong, a longtime investor in the local stock market, said there was “significant room” for growth and that many companies had been undervalued for a decade.
“The outlook is positive as we enter a recovery phase, with more investor funds flowing into the Asia Pacific region, including Malaysia,” he said.
WB: for another year Bangladesh economy will remain under pressure
Challenges like inflation, external pressure, financial sector vulnerabilities, and political uncertainty will continue to put pressure on Bangladesh’s economy in the current FY25, according to the World Bank.
The organization further said that the gross domestic product (GDP) of Bangladesh will decrease by 4 percent in the current FY25. However, in the next FY26, it may increase to 5.5 percent.
However, inflation will come down at the end of FY25, which will bring some relief to the people of Bangladesh, the World Bank said in its bi-annual update which it released on Tuesday.
The latest Bangladesh Development Update also highlights that global and domestic factors have created a challenging macro-fiscal context for the country. Bangladesh’s real GDP growth moderated to 5.2 percent in FY24, primarily due to weak consumption and exports.
It is projected to decelerate to 4 percent in FY25, driven by subdued investment and industrial sector activities, before accelerating to 5.5 percent in FY26 and returning to a robust growth trajectory soon after.
Bangladesh also faces increasing income inequality, particularly in urban areas. From 2010 to 2022, Bangladesh’s Gini index—a measure of income inequality—increased by nearly three points from 0.50 to 0.53.
The report highlights urgent and bold reforms that are necessary to help the country return to a strong, inclusive and sustainable growth path.
Indonesia eyes hefty tariffs on China
Siti Faiza has run Faiza’s Production House, a traditional women’s wear business, in Solo, Central Java since 2008.
Faiza started her business as a university student, designing and sewing garments herself at home.
When sales began to take off, Faiza recruited some of her neighbours to help scale up the business. Today, Faiza’s Production House employs 12 tailors.
Still, Faiza says it is a struggle to compete with cheaper garments imported from overseas, particularly China.
“Sometimes I see imported clothes online at such low prices, like 40,000 rupiah ($2.65). That would not even cover the cost of my fabric and I always wonder how the prices can be so low,” Faiza told.
Indonesia’s government has noted complaints by small-business owners such as Faiza, proposing tariffs of up to 200 percent on Chinese imports.
Minister of Trade Zulkifli Hasan has claimed that a flood of Chinese products into the local market due to the US-China trade war is threatening small businesses with “collapse”.
“I absolutely support the tariffs and actually think that we should reject imports completely because they are destroying local businesses,” Faiza’s husband Indrawan told.
“Indonesia already has a large local textile market. Why do we have to import anything?”
Economic reform in Maldives
Maldives, renowned for its stunning atolls, world class tourism, and fragile environmental balance is currently faced with significant economic challenges amid a global backdrop of uncertainty. Despite these difficulties, the island nation has shown remarkable resilience, particularly in its key tourism sector, while grappling with external and fiscal pressures.
World Bank’s report, “Maldives Development Update: Seeking Stability through Turbulent Times” outlines the current state of the economy, examining challenges posed by external debt, inflation, and dwindling currency reserves, while highlighting positive efforts aimed at achieving long term stability.
Tourism remains the central pillar of the Maldivian economy. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 9.8 percent in the first quarter of 2024, largely driven by a robust tourism recovery that saw a 15.3 percent increase in arrivals during the same period. By the end of August 2024, tourist arrivals had increased by 10.5 percent year on year, despite a slight decline in tourist spending.
Nepal floods deliver US$127 mn blow to country’s economy amid climate issues
Rajan Bajagain is faced with the heartbreaking sight of his home reduced to rubble, as the land where he once farmed is now submerged under a thick layer of muddy sludge.
The Roshi River, swollen in September, unleashed its fury upon his village in Panauti, located around 32km southeast of Nepal’s capital, Kathmandu. He said, the devastating flood left many people homeless and wiped out their hard-earned life savings.
“Our world has ended,” Bajagain, 53, said. “I lost everything I earned, and our source of livelihood has been washed away. Our farms and crops have been completely destroyed.”
Floods and landslides caused by torrential downpours wreaked havoc across Nepal, killing at least 236 people and resulting in widespread destruction. A preliminary government report estimates economic losses worth 17 billion rupees (US$127 million), but some economists say the figure could be even higher.