Global oil demand
Global oil demand rose seasonally in 4Q24, posting robust annual growth of 1.5 mb/d – the strongest level since 4Q23 and 260 kb/d higher than our previous forecast. Lower fuel prices, colder weather across the Northern Hemisphere and abundant petrochemical feedstocks all combined to boost consumption. Annual growth is now assessed at 940 kb/d for 2024, accelerating to 1.05 mb/d in 2025 as the economic outlook improves marginally.
China makes major breakthroughs in minerals related
The Ministry of Natural Resources announced on Tuesday that driven by a new round of strategic initiatives aimed at breakthroughs in mineral exploration, China has achieved a series of significant breakthroughs in mineral discovery. These developments have markedly improved the domestic security of critical and scarce minerals, as well as strategic emerging minerals.
As a result of these advancements, China’s self-sufficiency in essential minerals has significantly increased, reinforcing the foundation for energy resource security and bolstering the nation’s capacity to address risks and challenges in the energy and resource sectors.
Norway hits latest annual gas production record
Norway’s natural gas output set a new record in 2024 with 124 billion standard cubic meters sold, compared to the previous record of 122.8 billion standard cubic meters sold in 2022, the Nordic country’s upstream regulator has reported. “The high production in 2024 was caused by high regularity on the fields and increased capacity following upgrades in 2023”, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said. Earlier Equinor ASA said the Troll field on the Norwegian side of the North Sea produced a record 42.5 billion standard cubic meters of gas last year. The figure is equivalent to about three times Norway’s hydropower production in a normal year, according to the majority state-owned company.
China extends coal imports lead over India
China, the world’s biggest coal consumer, extended its lead in imports over No. 2 buyer India last year to the widest since at least 2013, customs data shows, cementing its hold on global coal markets and helping to curb a slide in prices. Global thermal coal prices have retreated from record highs hit after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but are 50 percent higher than the average during the 2017-19 period, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). “China’s appetite is causing prices to remain in the current range. If not, prices will really go down,” Ramli Ahmad, president director at Indonesian miner Ombilin Energi, told Reuters.
India’s sugar production declines by 14 pc (yoy)
Sugarcane production in the country declined by 14 percent in the sugar season year (SSY) 2025 compared to last year, which may lead to missing the estimates for SSY25, says a report by Centrum. The report noted that for the current season, industry analysts expect India’s total sugar production to be around 27 MMT, falling short of the earlier street estimate of 28 MMT. This would mark a significant drop from the 31.8 MMT produced in SSY24.
| Food Inflation Forecast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Last | Reference | Q1/25 | Q2/25 | Q3/25 | Q4/25 |
| Afghanistan | -7.00 | Nov/24 | -5 | -2 | 4 | 7.9 |
| Bangladesh | 12.92 | Dec/24 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 |
| Canada | 2.80 | Nov/24 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| China | -0.50 | Dec/24 | 2.8 | 2 | 2 | 1.9 |
| India | 8.39 | Dec/24 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 5 | 4.6 |
| Iran | 23.80 | Sep/24 | 23.5 | 22 | 21 | 22 |
| Iraq | 4.10 | Sep/24 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 3.2 |
| Japan | 4.80 | Nov/24 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Malaysia | 2.60 | Nov/24 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Maldives | 5.20 | Nov/24 | 4.8 | 4 | 3.8 | 4 |
| Pakistan | 0.27 | Dec/24 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Palestine | 80.06 | Dec/24 | 60 | 42 | 35 | 20 |
| United Kingdom | 2.00 | Dec/24 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.1 |
| United States | 2.50 | Dec/24 | 2.3 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |