- Pakistan’s imports rise by 15.6% in June 2024, despite annual decline in FY23-24 trade value
World merchandise trade volume the economists recorded, is projected to grow 2.6 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025, following a larger-than-expected decline of -1.2 per cent in 2023. Import demand in real terms was weak in 2023 in most regions, mainly in Europe but also in North America and Asia.
| Pakistan Imports Main Commodities | ||
|---|---|---|
| Commodities | %Change for value in million Rupees in June, 2024 over | |
| May, 2024 | June, 2023 | |
| Petroleum products | 1.26 | -24.45 |
| Petroleum crude | -7.26 | 5.99 |
| Natural Gas Liquefied | 13.70 | 22.66 |
| Electrical machinery & apparatus | -14.73 | 161.09 |
| Mobile phones | 76.89 | 405.12 |
| Palm oil | 7.01 | -3.70 |
| Plastic Materials | 4.16 | -0.90 |
| Iron & Steel | -15.48 | 3.57 |
| Motor cars (CKD/SKD) | 33.45 | 152.63 |
| Iron & Steel Scrap | -13.13 | 57.81 |
The main exceptions were the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, where imports surged. World real GDP growth at market exchange rates slowed from 3.1 per cent in 2022 to 2.7 per cent in 2023 but is expected to remain mostly stable over the next 2-year at 2.6 per cent in 2024 and 2.7 per cent in 2025. The contrast between the steady growth of GDP and the slowdown in merchandise trade volume is linked to inflationary pressures, which had a downward effect on consumption of trade-intensive goods, particularly in major traders. In recent years, global trade has been affected by combinations of adverse factors, which have been collectively referred to as a “poly-crisis”.
These factors encompass a series of supply and demand shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and the impacts of increased trade policy uncertainty driven by geopolitical rivalries. Despite these challenges, worldwide merchandise trade has displayed remarkable resilience over the past 4-year.
The volume of merchandise trade in the fourth quarter of 2023 was still up 6.3 per cent compared to the pre-pandemic peak in the third quarter of 2019, and up 19.1 per cent compared to the average level in 2015. Meanwhile, commercial services trade also witnessed a robust growth, with a 21% increase in US dollar value compared to 2019.
According to the Pakistan bureau of statistics (PBS) imports into Pakistan during June, 2024 amounted to Rs. 1,387,497 million (provisional) as compared to Rs. 1,367,656 million in May, 2024 and Rs. 1,200,392 million during June, 2023 explaining a rise of 1.45 per cent over May, 2024 and a rise of 15.59 per cent over June, 2023. In terms of US dollars the imports in June, 2024 were recorded $ 4,983 million (provisional) as against to $ 4,915 million in May, 2024 explaining a rise of 1.38 per cent over May, 2024 and increased by 18.95 per cent as against to $ 4,189 million in June, 2023. Imports during July – June, 2023-24 (FY2023-24) totaled Rs. 15,487,385 million (provisional) as compared to Rs. 13,472,988 million during the same period of last year explaining a rise of 14.95 per cent. In terms of US dollars the imports during July – June, 2023-24 (FY2023-24) totaled $ 54,798 million (provisional) as against $ 55,198 million during the same period of last year showing a decline of 0.72 per cent. Furthermore, the main commodities of imports during June, 2024 were recorded petroleum products (Rs. 190,590 million), petroleum crude (Rs.128,995 million), natural gas, liquified (Rs.102,615 million), electric machinery & apparatus (Rs.87,700 million), mobile phones (Rs. 77,566 million), palm oil (Rs. 68,781 million), plastic materials (Rs.52,924 million), iron & steel (Rs.48,702 million), motor cars (CKD/SKD) (Rs.28,898 million) and Iron and steel scrap (Rs.27,398 million).
| Import Volume (annual % change) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Details | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025(E) |
| North America | -5.2 | 11.9 | 5.7 | -2.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
| South America | -9.6 | 24.8 | 4.2 | -3.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| Europe | -7.2 | 8.8 | 6.0 | -4.7 | 0.1 | 3.1 |
| CIS | -5.4 | 10.3 | -6.1 | 18.8 | -3.8 | 2.9 |
| Africa | -15.5 | 7.4 | 8.8 | -2.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| Middle East | -9.7 | 13.8 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Asia | -1.0 | 10.5 | -0.7 | -0.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 |