- OECD and FAO predict 13% rise in global cereal production by 2027 to meet population demand
No doubt, agriculture can help reduce poverty, raise incomes and improve food security for 80 per cent of the world’s poor, who live in rural areas and work mainly in farming. The World Bank Group is a leading financier of agriculture.
Agricultural development is one of the most powerful tools to end extreme poverty, boost shared prosperity, and feed a projected 10 billion people by 2050. An increase in the population creates more demand for food.
According to the Agricultural Outlook by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) published, global cereal production was projected to increase by 13 per cent by 2027. Crop production, farming activities, and trade volumes will have to increase to meet the needs of the increased population. Agribusiness companies will increase acquisitions of arable land to increase crop production.
Agriculture companies are expected to increase their presence and activities to meet increased demand from farming activities and increase their growth. International sources recorded that the gross production value in Agriculture market is projected to amount to US$4.82trillion in 2025 in the world. An annual growth rate of 3.45 per cent is expected (CAGR 2025-2029), resulting in gross production value of US$5.52trillion in 2029. The import value in Agriculture market is projected to amount to US$939.5billion in 2025 globally. An annual growth rate of 3.31 per cent is expected (CAGR 2025–2029). The export value in Agriculture market is projected to amount to US$865.2billion in 2025. An annual growth rate of 3.56 per cent is expected (CAGR 2025–2029).
According to the economic survey of Pakistan, the agriculture sector in the country witnessed robust growth in FY2023-24, with an overall increase of 6.25 per cent. Notably, the crops saw a remarkable growth of 11.03 per cent, a significant improvement compared to the last year. Within this sub-sector, important crops experienced a substantial surge, growing by 16.82 per cent, showing a solid recovery and significant production increase. Other crops had a modest growth of 0.90 per cent, showing stability but not contributing as significantly to the overall growth. The main attributes of this growth include fruits, vegetables, and pulses. Cotton ginning saw a remarkable 47.23 per cent increase, reflecting a massive rebound from previous falls, and significantly boosting the overall crop sub-sector.
The livestock sub-sector stayed steady growth, increasing by 3.89 per cent, slightly higher than its growth in the last year. This indicates sustained and stable performance in livestock production. Furthermore, forestry growth decelerated to 3.05 per cent from a peak of 16.63 per cent in the last year. While this represents a slowdown, it still contributed significantly to the overall agricultural growth. Experts recorded that water availability during Kharif 2023 grew to 61.9 Million Acre Feet (MAF) from 43.3 MAF during Kharif 2022 and remained at par with the requirements of Kharif crops. While, for Rabi FY2023-24, it is registered at 30.6 MAF, showing a rise of 4.1 per cent over the same season last year. Crop Position During 2023-24, the critical crops contributed 20.67 per cent to value addition in agriculture and 4.97 per cent to GDP. Other crops contributed 13.51 per cent in value addition to agriculture and 3.25 per cent in GDP.
Cotton
The government experts recorded that during FY2024, cotton area cultivation increased to 2.4 million hectares (ha) against 2.1 million ha last year, showing a growth of only 13.1 per cent. In contrast, its production recorded a remarkable increase of 108.2 per cent to 10.2 million bales. It has share of 0.7 per cent in GDP and 2.9 per cent in agriculture value addition. The increase in the area under cultivation has contributed to increased cotton production. This overall improvement in production is linked to a better quality of pest-resilient seeds, favourable weather conditions, and attractive fixation of the intervention price of cotton (Phutti) at Rs 8,500/40 kg at the start of the sowing season.
Sugarcane
During FY2024, they also recorded that sugarcane was cultivated on 1.2 million ha, showing a decrease of 10.5 per cent compared to 1.3 million ha last year. It has share of 0.8 per cent in GDP and 3.5 per cent in agriculture value addition. Its production slightly declined to 0.4 per cent in 2023-24 to 87.6 million tons over 88.0 million tons last year.
Rice
Furthermore, rice remained the promising crop FY2024; its area significantly increased by 22.2 per cent to 3.6 million ha from 3.0 million ha. Its production increased 34.8 per cent to 9.9 million tons in 2023-24 against 7.3 million tons last year. It has share of 0.6 per cent in GDP and 2.5 per cent in agriculture value addition.
Maize
During FY2024, maize crop was cultivated on 1.6 million ha, showing a decrease of 4.5 per cent over last year’s cultivation of 1.7 million ha. Its production fell 10.4 per cent to 9.8 million tons from 11.0 million last year. It has share of 0.7 per cent in GDP and 2.9 per cent in agriculture value addition.
Wheat
During FY2024, wheat was sown at 9.6 million ha against last year’s area of 9.0 million ha, showing an increase of 6.6 per cent. Wheat production stood at 31.4 million tons compared to 28.2 million tons last year, and a growth of 11.6 was observed in wheat production. The government has maintained the MSP at Rs 3,900/40 kg for 2023-24. A dry spell in December 2024 could hurt its yield. Nonetheless, considering the situation during the sowing season regarding weather conditions, soil moisture, input availability, and the sown area in various provinces, wheat production remained promising, barring any unexpected lousy weather at harvest time. It may be worth noting that this crop has 9.0 per cent share in agriculture and 2.2 per cent in GDP.